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X-Apparently-To: fathersmanifesto@yahoo.com via web2103.mail.yahoo.com Received: from xck.egroups.com (207.138.41.173) by mta128.mail.yahoo.com with SMTP; 18 Oct 1999 15:58:35 -0700 X-eGroups-Return: demand-return-836-fathersmanifesto=yahoo.com@returns.egroups.com Received: from [10.1.2.41] by ck.egroups.com with NNFMP; 18 Oct 1999 22:55:10 -0000 Mailing-List: contact demand-owner@egroups.com X-Mailing-List: demand@egroups.com X-URL: http://www.egroups.com/list/demand/ Received: (listserv 1.262); by a1; 18 Oct 1999 22:55:08 -0000 Reply-To: demand@egroups.com Delivered-To: listsaver-egroups-demand@egroups.com Received: (qmail 1913 invoked from network); 18 Oct 1999 22:55:06 -0000 Received: from othello.cnmnetwork.com (209.79.28.30) by qg.egroups.com with SMTP; 18 Oct 1999 22:55:06 -0000 Received: (qmail 519 invoked from network); 18 Oct 1999 15:54:58 -0700 Received: from 05-051.015.popsite.net (HELO urbini) (192.216.7.51) by othello.cnmnetwork.com with SMTP; 18 Oct 1999 15:54:58 -0700 Message-ID: <003f01bf19bb$a3b39fa0$866a4fc6@urbini> From: "Fathers' Manifesto" To: References: <0.63fa9ce7.253a0c4d@aol.com> <003801bf1820$3acb8620$5c6a4fc6@urbini> Date: Mon, 18 Oct 1999 15:53:41 -0700 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.00.2014.211 Subject: [demand] Re: Alcohol Statistics Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_003C_01BF1980.F4384560" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit ------=_NextPart_000_003C_01BF1980.F4384560 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" content-transfer-encoding: quoted-printable % Fatal Crashes Fatal Crashes Average Ounces Alcohol per Day Percent of Population Relative Odds Miles Travelled Fatal Crashes per Billion Miles = Total 100% 41,967 = 100% = 1.497E+12 28.0 = Drinking Driver 35% 14,688 1.28 60% 0.5833 8.982E+11 16.4 = Non-Drinking Driver 65% 27,279 0 40% 1.625 5.988E+11 45.6 = Ratio Non-Drinking:Drinking 1.86 1.86 0.00 0.67 2.79 0.67 2.79 = I'm going to go ahead and answer my own question, because this is an import= ant point to make--namely that our listening to and believing feminist lies= costs us lots of lives, mostly men. The fact that the non-drinking driver is 2.79 times more likely to have a f= atal traffic accident per mile driven is not the probability of him having = an accident, because the probability of a non-drinking driver having a fata= l traffic accident with another non-drinking driver is 4.5 times greather t= han the probability of a drinking driver having a fatal traffic accident wi= th another drinking driver. Crashes Rate per billion miles = Total Crash Fatalities 41,967 28 = Drinking Driver Crashes 14,688 16.4 = Non-Drinking Driver Crashes 27,279 45.6 = One Driver Crashes 13,989 9.3 = Two Driver Crashes 27,978 18.7 = Total Drivers in Two Driver Crashes 55,956 = = = = = Crash With Only One Drinking Driver = 3,701 2.4 = Drinking Drivers in Two Driver Crashes 21,974 = = Drinking Driver Crashes with Drinking Driver 6,743 4.3 = Drinking Driver Crashes With Non-Drinking Driver 15,236 9.7 = = = = Crash With Only One Non-Drinking Driver = 10,288 10.5 = Non-Drinking Drivers in Two Driver Crashes = = Non-Drinking Driver Crashes With Non-Drinking Driver 18,746 19.3 = Non-Drinking Driver Crashes with Drinking Driver = 15,236 15.7 = If all drivers had the same traffic safety record of the drinking driver, t= here would be 36,478 FEWER traffic fatalities per year. If anyone wants th= e original spreadsheet to verify these figures, let me know. Fatal accidents at drinking driver rate: = = One driver accidents 1,198 = Two driver accidents 4,291 = TOTAL 5,489 = Current fatal accidents 41,967 = Lives Saved Each Year By Outlawing Non-Drinking Drivers 36,478 = John Knight ----- Original Message ----- = From: Fathers' Manifesto = To: demand@egroups.com = Sent: Saturday, October 16, 1999 2:48 PM Subject: [demand] Re: Alcohol Statistics Dear Michael, What kind of drugs do you use? It looks like you need to get a new suppl= ier. > If the population above 14 years old is 100 million (likely conservativ= e) No, the population above 14 is 85% of the population, or 230 million. Yo= u are only off by 56%. > Given 64 ounces in a gallon Not on my planet. Here on Earth, a gallon is 128 ounces. You are only o= ff by 50% this time. > 1.92 ounces/day Or, roughly one drink per day, several a week, probably= enough to get drunk twice a week No, two drinks per day (again off by 50%), 14 per week (off by 3X), and e= nough to get arrested for drunk driving all week long (off by 3X) > P.S. Anyone wondering at the wild use of statistics when supporting on= e's own = > views ought to consider the above in light of what has been posted by a= nother list = > member (without substantiation). I would hardly characterize your post as a "use of statistics" at all. T= he real numbers are 230 million out of a population of 270 million are abov= e age 14, and per capita consumption of 280.3 ounces of alcohol each adds u= p to 64.5 billion ounces per year. Of those 230 million above age 14, 40% = (or 92 million) don't drink at all, leaving 138 million who drink 64.5 bill= ion ounces per year, 467 ounces each per year, or 1.28 ounces each per day. > as some have declared "10% of the population accounts for 50% of the co= nsumption" Let's set the record straight. The "some" you are referring to above is = only "one", namely the one who is off by more than half about our populatio= n and what a gallon is--you--who still hasn't provided a cite for that asse= rtion, which disqualifies it from the calculation. John Knight ps--I know that this is not within your purview, but please, Michael, whi= ch of the following do you believe is the safer driver, and by how much?: Average Ounces of Alcohol Consumption per day Percent Involvement i= n Fatal Traffic Accidents = Non-drinking driver 0 ounces 65% = Drinking driver 1.28 ounces 35% = = = = = = = = = = = = = ----- Original Message ----- = From: To: Sent: Saturday, October 16, 1999 10:13 AM Subject: [demand] Re: Alcohol Statistics > Apparent per capita ethanol consumption for the United States, (1990)-1= 996. > [Gallons of ethanol, based on population age 15 and older prior to1970 = and on population age 14 and older thereafter]. > = > ----------------------------------------------------- > Year Beer Wine Spirits Total > ----------------------------------------------------- > 1996 1.25 0.30 0.64 2.19 > 1995 1.25 0.29 0.64 2.17 > 1994 1.26 0.29 0.66 2.21 > 1993 1.28 0.29 0.69 2.25 > 1992 1.29 0.30 0.71 2.31 > 1991 1.29 0.30 0.71 2.30 > 1990 1.34 0.33 0.78 2.45 > ----------------------------------------------------- > = > Numbers may not sum to totals due to rounding. > = > Sources: Alcohol Epidemiologic Data System. Williams, G.D.; Stinson, F= .S; Sanchez, L.L., and Dufour, M.C. SURVEILLANCE REPORT #47: APPARENT PER = CAPITA ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION: NATIONAL, STATE AND REGIONAL TRENDS, 1977-96. = Rockville, MD: National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism, Division= of Biometry and Epidemiology (December 1998). > = > Data updated from: Hyman, M.; Zimmerman, M.; Gurioli, C.; and Helrich,= A. DRINKERS, DRINKING AND ALCOHOL-RELATED MORTALITY AND HOSPITALIZATIONS:= A STATISTICAL COMPENDIUM, 1980 EDITION. New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers Univ= ersity, 1980. > = > Alcohol Epidemiologic Data System. Stinson, F.S.; Lane, J.D.; Williams,= G.D.; and Dufour, M.C. U.S. APPARENT CONSUMPTION OF ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES. = U.S. Alcohol Epidemiologic Data Reference Manual, Vol. 1, 3rd Edition. Ro= ckville, MD: National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism, Division o= f Biometry and Epidemiology (October 1997). > --------------------------------------------------------- > = > = > Given 64 ounces in a gallon, 2.19 gallons per capita per year equals .3= 84 ounces of alcohol consumption per day per capita for the referenced popu= lation group. This level of consumption would seem to indicate one drink e= very several days for the general populace. > = > If the population above 14 years old is 100 million (likely conservativ= e), and, as some have declared "10% of the population accounts for 50% of t= he consumption", we have: > = > 100 mm pple * 2.19 =3D 219 mm gal/yr > 50% of 219 mm =3D 109 mm gal/yr > 109.5 mm gal/yr cons. by 10 mm pple =3D 10.9 each/yr > 10.9 gal/yr * 64 ounces / 365 days =3D 1.92 ounces/day > = > Or, roughly one drink per day, several a week, probably enough to get d= runk twice a week, making people wonder if you are in fact a problem drinke= r, and making you an "alcohol-related" statistic if you get involved in a t= raffic accident. > = > Michael J. Farrand > = > P.S. Anyone wondering at the wild use of statistics when supporting on= e's own views ought to consider the above in light of what has been posted = by another list member (without substantiation). ---------------------------------------------------------------------------= --- = Click Here! = eGroups.com home: http://www.egroups.com/group/demand www.egroups.com - Simplifying group communications ------------------------------------------------------------------------ eGroups.com home: http://www.egroups.com/group/demand http://www.egroups.com - Simplifying group communications ------=_NextPart_000_003C_01BF1980.F4384560 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" content-transfer-encoding: quoted-printable

 

 

% Fatal Crashes

Fatal Crashes

Average Ounces Alcohol per Day

Percent of Population

Relative Odds

Miles Travelled

Fatal Crashes per Billion Miles

Total

100%

41,967

100%

1.497E+12

28.0

Drinking Driver

35%

14,688

1.28

60%

0.5833

8.982E+11

16.4

Non-Drinking Driver

65%

27,279

0

40%

1.625

5.988E+11

45.6

Ratio Non-Drinking:Drinking

1.86

1.86

0.00

0.67

2.79

0.67

2.79

 
I'm going to go ahead and answer my own question, becau= se this = is an important point to make--namely that our listening to and believing = feminist lies costs us lots of lives, mostly men.
 
The fact that the non-drinking driver is 2.79 times mor= e = likely to have a fatal traffic accident per mile driven is not the probabil= ity = of him having an accident, because the probability of a non-drinking driver= = having a fatal traffic accident with another non-drinking driver is 4.5 tim= es = greather than the probability of a drinking driver having a fatal traffic = accident with another drinking driver.
 

Crashes

Rate per billion miles

Total Crash Fatalities

41,967

28

Drinking Driver Crashes

14,688

16.4

Non-Drinking Driver Crashes

27,279

45.6

One Driver Crashes

13,989

9.3

Two Driver Crashes

27,978

18.7

Total Drivers in Two Driver Crashes

55,956

Crash With Only One Drinking Driver

3,701

2.4

Drinking Drivers in Two Driver Crashes

21,974

Drinking Driver Crashes with Drinking Driver

6,743

4.3

Drinking Driver Crashes With Non-Drinking = Driver

15,236

9.7

Crash With Only One Non-Drinking Driver

10,288

10.5

Non-Drinking Drivers in Two Driver Crashes

=

Non-Drinking Driver Crashes With Non-Drinking = Driver

18,746

19.3

Non-Drinking Driver Crashes with Drinking Driver =

15,236

15.7

 
If all drivers had the same traffic safety record of th= e = drinking driver, there would be 36,478 FEWER traffic fatalities per year.&n= bsp; = If anyone wants the original spreadsheet to verify these figures, let me = know.
 

Fatal accidents at drinking driver rate:

One driver accidents

1,198

Two driver accidents

4,291

TOTAL

5,489

Current fatal accidents

41,967

Lives Saved Each Year By Outlawing Non-Drinking = Drivers

36,478

 
John Knight
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, October 16, 1999 2= :48 = PM
Subject: [demand] Re: Alcohol = Statistics

Dear Michael,
 
What kind of drugs do you use?  It looks like yo= u need = to get a new supplier.
 
> If the population above 14 years old is 100 mill= ion = (likely conservative)
 
No, the population above 14 is 85% of the population,= or 230 = million.  You are only off by 56%.
 
> Given 64 ounces in a gallon
 
Not on my planet.  Here on Earth, a gallon is 12= 8 = ounces.  You are only off by 50% this time.
 
> 1.92 ounces/day Or, roughly one drink per day, s= everal = a week, probably enough to get drunk twice a week
 
No, two drinks per day (again off by 50%), 14 per wee= k (off = by 3X), and enough to get arrested for drunk driving all week long (off b= y = 3X)
 
> P.S.  Anyone wondering at the wild use of = statistics when supporting one's own
> views ought to consider the above in light of wh= at has = been posted by another list
> member (without substantiation).
I would hardly characterize your post as a "use of = statistics" at all.  The real numbers are 230 million out of a popul= ation = of 270 million are above age 14, and per capita consumption of 280.3 ounc= es of = alcohol each adds up to 64.5 billion ounces per year.  Of those 230 = million above age 14, 40% (or 92 million) don't drink at all, leaving 138= = million who drink 64.5 billion ounces per year, 467 ounces each per = year, or 1.28 ounces each per day.
 
> as some have declared "10% of the population acc= ounts = for 50% of the consumption"
 
Let's set the record straight.  The "some" you a= re = referring to above is only "one", namely the one who is off by more = than = half about our population and what a gallon is--you--who still hasn't pro= vided = a cite for that assertion, which disqualifies it from the = calculation.
 
John Knight
 
 
 
ps--I know that this is not within your purview, but = please, = Michael, which of the following do you believe is the safer driver, and b= y how = much?:
 
Average Ounces of Alcoh= ol = Consumption per day Percent Involvement in = Fatal = Traffic Accidents
Non-drinking driver 0 ounces 65%
Drinking driver<= /TD> 1.28 ounces 35%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
----- Original Message -----
To: <demand@egroups.com>
Sent: Saturday, October 16, 1999 10:13 AM
Subject: [demand] Re: Alcohol Statistics

> Apparent per capita ethanol consumptio= n for = the United States, (1990)-1996.
> [Gallons of ethanol, based on = population age 15 and older prior to1970 and on population age 14 and old= er = thereafter].
>
> = -----------------------------------------------------
> = Year       = Beer       = Wine       = Spirits       Total
> = -----------------------------------------------------
> = 1996       = 1.25       = 0.30         = 0.64        2.19
> = 1995       = 1.25       = 0.29         = 0.64        2.17
> = 1994       = 1.26       = 0.29         = 0.66        2.21
> = 1993       = 1.28       = 0.29         = 0.69        2.25
> = 1992       = 1.29       = 0.30         = 0.71        2.31
> = 1991       = 1.29       = 0.30         = 0.71        2.30
> = 1990       = 1.34       = 0.33         = 0.78        2.45
> = -----------------------------------------------------
>
> Nu= mbers = may not sum to totals due to rounding.
>
> Sources: Alcohol = Epidemiologic Data System.  Williams, G.D.; Stinson, F.S; Sanchez, L= .L., = and Dufour, M.C.  SURVEILLANCE REPORT #47: APPARENT PER CAPITA ALCOH= OL = CONSUMPTION: NATIONAL, STATE AND REGIONAL TRENDS, 1977-96.  Rockvill= e, = MD: National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism, Division of Biome= try = and Epidemiology (December 1998).
>
> Data updated from:&nbs= p; = Hyman, M.; Zimmerman, M.; Gurioli, C.; and Helrich, A.  DRINKERS, = DRINKING AND ALCOHOL-RELATED MORTALITY AND HOSPITALIZATIONS:  A = STATISTICAL COMPENDIUM, 1980 EDITION.  New Brunswick, NJ:  Rutg= ers = University, 1980.
>
> Alcohol Epidemiologic Data System. Sti= nson, = F.S.; Lane, J.D.; Williams, G.D.; and Dufour, M.C.  U.S. APPARENT = CONSUMPTION OF ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES.  U.S. Alcohol Epidemiologic Data= = Reference Manual, Vol. 1, 3rd Edition.  Rockville, MD: National Inst= itute = on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism, Division of Biometry and Epidemiology = (October 1997).
> = ---------------------------------------------------------
>
>= ; =
> Given 64 ounces in a gallon, 2.19 gallons per capita per year eq= uals = .384 ounces of alcohol consumption per day per capita for the referenced = population group.  This level of consumption would seem to indicate = one = drink every several days for the general populace.
>
> If th= e = population above 14 years old is 100 million (likely conservative), and, = as = some have declared "10% of the population accounts for 50% of the = consumption", we have:
>
> 100 mm pple * 2.19 =3D 219 mm = gal/yr
> 50% of 219 mm =3D 109 mm gal/yr
> 109.5 mm gal/yr co= ns. by = 10 mm pple =3D 10.9 each/yr
> 10.9 gal/yr * 64 ounces / 365 days = =3D 1.92 = ounces/day
>
> Or, roughly one drink per day, several a week= , = probably enough to get drunk twice a week, making people wonder if you ar= e in = fact a problem drinker, and making you an "alcohol-related" statistic if = you = get involved in a traffic accident.
>
> Michael J. = Farrand
>
> P.S.  Anyone wondering at the wild use of = statistics when supporting one's own views ought to consider the above in= = light of what has been posted by another list member (without = substantiation).

3D"click =
Click Here!
eGroups.com home: http://www.egroups.com/group= /demand
www.egroups.com - Simplifying group = communications

3D"click
Click Here!
eGroups.com home: http://ww= w.egroups.com/group/demand
www.egroups.com - Simplifying group = communications
------=_NextPart_000_003C_01BF1980.F4384560--

 

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Modified Thursday, December 24, 2009

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