POLL TRENDS

Gallup Poll Accuracy Record

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

Year Gallup Final Survey Election Results Deviation
1996 52.0% CLINTON 50.1% CLINTON +1.9%
1994 53.5 Republican 53.5 Republican* 0.0
1992** 49.0 CLINTON 43.2 CLINTON +5.8
1990 54.0 Democratic 54.1 Democratic -0.1
1988 56.0 BUSH 53.9 BUSH -2.1
1984 59.0 REAGAN 59.1 REAGAN -0.1
1982 55.0 Democratic 56.1 Democratic -1.1
1980 47.0 REAGAN 50.8 REAGAN -3.8
1978 55.0 Democratic 54.6 Democratic +0.4
1976 48.0 CARTER 50.0 CARTER -2.0
1974 60.0 Democratic 58.9 Democratic +1.1
1972 62.0 NIXON 61.8 NIXON +0.2
1970 53.0 Democratic 54.3 Democratic -1.3
1968 43.0 NIXON 43.5 NIXON -0.5
1966 52.5 Democratic 51.9 Democratic +0.6
1964 64.0 JOHNSON 61.3 JOHNSON +2.7
1962 55.5 Democratic 52.7 Democratic +2.8
1960 51.0 KENNEDY 50.1 KENNEDY +0.9
1958 57.0 Democratic 56.5 Democratic +0.5
1956 59.5 EISENHOWER 57.8 EISENHOWER +1.7
1954 51.5 Democratic 52.7 Democratic -1.2
1952 51.0 EISENHOWER 55.4 EISENHOWER -4.4
1950 51.0 Democratic 50.3 Democratic +0.7
1948 44.5 TRUMAN 49.9 TRUMAN -5.4
1946 58.0 Democratic 54.3 Democratic +3.7
1944 51.5 ROOSEVELT 53.3 ROOSEVELT -1.8
1942 52.0 Democratic 48.0 Democratic +4.0
1940 52.0 ROOSEVELT 55.0 ROOSEVELT -3.0
1938 54.0 Democratic 50.8 Democratic +3.2
1936 55.7 ROOSEVELT 62.5 ROOSEVELT -6.8
NOTE: No Congressional poll done in 1986
* Based on national aggregate vote estimate computed by The Roper Center, with votes cast for minor party candidates removed.
**The Ross Perot candidacy created an additional source of error in estimating the 1992 presidential vote. There was no historical precedent for Perot, an independent candidate who was accorded equal status to the major party nominees in the presidential debates and had a record advertising budget. Gallup's decision to allocate none of the undecided vote to Perot, based on past performance of third party and independent candidates, resulted in this overestimation of Clinton's vote.