8th vs.12th Grade TIMSS

In 1995, we were one of 21 countries whose 8th and 12th graders took TIMSS, and 8th grade boys in Sweden scored 18 points higher than our boys. Could anything be a worse indictment of US education than THAT? Well, uh, yes--by the 12th grade they scored 140 points higher than our 12th grade boys. What could be worse than THAT? Well, the Netherlands followed a similar pattern, scoring 43 points higher at the 8th grade, but 139 points higher by the 12th grade. Is that all? Not at all. Slovenian boys scored 43 points higher at the 8th grade, but this "gender" gap increased by 87 points to 130 by 12th grade.  What about Russia? Yup, 84 points, from 33 to 117. Cyprus actually scored LOWER than us in the 8th grade, but their scores increased 145 points by 12th grade, leaving them 115 points ahead of us. New Zealand scored 10 points higher, but the gap increased by 96 points to 106 by 12th grade. Hungary scored 35 points higher at 8th grade but 101 points higher at 12th grade. Even third world (and now bankrupt) Italy increased their gap by 54 points: from 10 points LOWER in 8th grade but 44 points higher by 12th grade. Canada increased their gap by 29 points, Australia by 53 points, Switzerland by 27 points, Germany by 59 points: sure does seem like LOTS of countries do something right by their high schoolers that we do SERIOUSLY wrong, eh?

BUT there's more. Of the 14 other countries who took both 8th and 12th grade TIMSS, only two of them, France and Austria, managed to DECREASE this gap. France scored 40 points higher than us at 8th grade but only 24 points higher at 12th grade. Austria scored 42 higher in 8th grade, but only 13 points higher in 12th grade. The OTHER 12 countries increased their gap by 0.5 to 1.0 standard deviations. On AVERAGE, all of these countries scored 20 points higher than us at the 8th grade but a WHOPPING 80 points by the 12th grade.

This might all sound like a real sick joke. But this is EXACTLY what the last international standardized test which our 12th grader participated in revealed.

NOW, what could POSSIBLY be worse? Well, our GIRLS did even WORSE. Our 12th grade girls scored dead last of all industrialized nations, and only 4 points higher than girls in South Africa, if you can even conceive of that. Norwegian 8th grade girls scored only 4 points higher than our girls, but their 12th grade girls scored 130 points higher than our 12th grade girls, increasing the gap by 126 points. The other biggest increase in the gap was Cyprus, from 22 points LOWER in 8th grade to 103 points HIGHER by 12th grade. Sweden increased their gap 103 points. The gap in the Slovak Republic, Hungary, Netherlands, New Zealand, Iceland, and Lithuania increased 91 points.

Other countries (Sweden, Cyprus, Greece, Portugal, Kuwait, Colombia, Iran, and South Africa), increased their gap more than 100 points. Even French girls increased the gap by 5 points, and only two countries saw the gap decrease, Austria and the Czech Republic. The gap in all of the other countries increased by 0.5 to 1.0 standard deviations.  On AVERAGE, these 20 countries' girls scored 21 points higher than ours at the 8th grade, but by the 12 grade, they scored 85 points higher.

So now the College Board tells us that SAT math scores have increased 4 points since then, the equivalent of 3.3 TIMSS math points. Whoopie, now instead of the gap between Norwegian boys and our boys being 140 points, it's down to a mere 136.7 points. And instead of 139 with the Netherlands, it's a mere 135.7. Our 12th grade girls, rather than scoring 131 points lower than Hungarian girls, now score only 127.7 points lower.

But they've made *dramatic* progress relative to South Africa: rather than scoring 1 point lower, they now score 2.3 points HIGHER.

BUT: Our LOW TCI (Total Coverage Index) Tells a VERY Different Story

Our Educators FALSELY Claim:

"One of the main facts to remember is that education after middle school in the US is very different than it is in almost all other developed countries. The TIMSS 1995 test for the entire 12th grade population did not reflect this fact. That is, in the US, there essentially is no vocational school after middle school - everyone goes to academic high schools, where in other countries like the European countries, there is vocational school after middle school. And so in these other countries, a large percentage of the population after middle school does not remain in academic high schools. And so this obviously results in a completely unfair comparison of academic high school 12th graders, when comparing the US to the rest of the world like these European countries that have large percentages of their populations not in academic high schools. "

This is patently and provably false. All you need to do is LOOK at the report which was cited which includes TIMSS Coverage Index B-15 Table B.5 Computation of TCI: Estimated Percentage of School-Leaving Age Cohort Covered by TIMSS Sample (or pg. 18 of C_Full.pdf) – Final Year of Secondary School. This is what the report shows:


Australia 68.1%
Austria 75.9%
Canada 70.3%
Cyprus 47.9% (Private and vocational schools excluded)
Czech Republic 77.6%
Denmark 57.7%
France 83.9%
Germany 75.3%
Greece 10.0% (Only students having taken advanced mathematics and physics included)
Hungary 65.3%
Iceland 54.5%
Italy 51.5%
Latvia 3.0% (Only students having taken physics included)
Lithuania 42.5%
Netherlands 78.0% (Apprenticeship programs excluded)
New Zealand 70.5%
Norway 84.0%
Russian Federation 48.1% (Vocational schools and non-Russian speaking students excluded)
Slovenia 87.8%
South Africa 48.9%
Sweden 70.6%
Switzerland 81.9%
United States 63.1%

When private or vocational schools, or "non-Russian speaking students", or students who have not taken advanced math or physics, are excluded, this report says so. BUT even with these vocational students excluded in the Netherlands, they STILL had a TCI much higher than ours (78% vs. 63.1%). Of these 21 countries (which EXCLUDES the much higher scoring students in Asian nations like Korea, Japan, Singapore, and China), only 7 had a lower TCI than ours. But having a lower TCI does not even begin to imply higher scores (or significantly higher, anyway). Italy had a LOW TCI (51.5% vs. our 63.1%), but was also one of the LOWEST scoring European nations, scoring only 4 points higher than us in math literacy (475 vs. 471). The reason Denmark has such a low TCI is the large number of foreign students there: 114% of their school age children are in secondary schools. With a TCI almost 20 percentage points higher than ours, Switzerland still scored 60 points higher than us in math literacy. Sweden with a TCI 7 percentage points higher than us scored 84 points higher. Iceland did have a relatively low TCI and scored 70 points higher, but that's not necessarily BECAUSE of their low TCI. South Africa is one of the few countries whose TCI was MUCH lower than ours, but they also scored MUCH lower tan us (352 vs. 471).

WHO were the vast majority of the MORE than ONE THIRD of American 12th graders who were EXCLUDED? BLACKS, of course. And if they HAD been INCLUDED, then South Africa might not have scored so low after all!


The questions you OUGHT to be asking Paul is WHY more than a third of American 18 year olds were't represented, who are they, why they weren't represented, what would our score have been if they HAD been represented, and is this the main (or only) reason the already LOW US score of 471 didn't even meet the international sampling guidlines? We can't even claim it's because they are in vocational schools or on a vocational track, because as you aptly and correctly note, it's EUROPEAN nations, not the US, who offer them. We MIGHT even claim that as many as 10-15% drop out because they are superior students and don't need high school and that if they had been included, our score would have been higher. This would be a plausible scenario in some European nations, and not impossible here. And this leaves us with 22% to 27% who are (or would have been) the worst performing 18 year olds who might have scored lower than South Africa or Washington, DC, or Mozambique. If they HAD taken TIMSS, and if they raised our TCI to 85% (equivalent to France, or Norway, or Slovenia, or Switzerland), how much lower would our already low score of 471 have been?

63.1% took TIMSS

22% who were excluded might have scored in the range of South Africa

14.9% who were excluded might have INCREASED our scores

.74 x 471 + .26 x 356 = 348.5 + 92.5 = 441

Another scenario is that ALL of the 36.9% who were excluded would have scored LOWER than South Africa

.631 x 471 + .369 x 346 = 297.2 + 127.6 = 425

So if the US HAD met the sampling requirements for our 12th grade students in TIMSS, our score would have been AT LEAST 30 points, and perhaps as much as 46 points, lower.

The nice thing about lying with statistics, like NCES did here, is that we have a permanent record that you lied with statistics. The nice thing about ADMITTING that you lied with statistics, like NCES did here by excluding more than a THIRD of American 12 grade students in calculating our average 12 grade math score, is that we have a permanent record that you KNOW that you lied with statistics. Ditto for NAEP math scores which NCES claims increased 20 points in the last two decades when every OTHER test either proves they went DOWN, or at least that NCES over-estimated the amount by which they increased by almost ten fold.

SO THE ABOVE NEEDS TO BE REWRITTEN

12th Grade TIMSS Math Score INCLUDES Nongovernment Schools

11% of American 12th graders are in private [read: nongovernment] schools, who were included in the TIMSS testing, and who according to both PISA and NAEP score .59 standard deviations (or 55.5 TIMSS math points and 16 NAEP math points) higher than public [read: government] schools AT THE 8TH GRADE LEVEL. The other 52.1% of the 63.1% of American 18 year olds who were tested in TIMSS are in government schools. IF THE GAP BETWEEN GOVERNMENT AND NONGOVERNMENT SCHOOLS DOES NOT INCREASE BY 12TH GRADE [which it undoubtedly does, dramatically], then our math score of 471 would be comprised of the following two components:


.174X + .826Y = 471
X - Y = 55.5

Where X = score of nongovernment schools, and Y = score of government schools

X = 55.5 + Y
.174 x (55.5 + Y) + .826Y = 471
9.657 + .174Y + .826Y = 471
Y = 461.343
X = 516.843

NAEP Math Score of 269 For Government Schools Equivalent to TIMSS Math Score of 461

NAEP Math Score of 285 For Nongovernment Schools Equivalent to TIMSS Math Score of 517

So the 1996 NAEP math score of 269 for government schools is equivalent to a TIMSS math score of 461, and the NAEP score for nongovernment schools of 285 is equivalent to a TIMSS math score of 517.

If there WAS an 11 point increase in NAEP math scores for GOVERNMENT schools as NAEP claims (the equivalent of 38 TIMSS math points), this would put GOVERNMENT schools in the range of 499, which is STILL 48 points lower than Denmark, 61 points lower than the Netherlands, and 53 points lower than Sweden.

No other test, international or US, confirms such a leap in progress by our educators.

TIMSS Science Performance of our 12th graders was significantly lower than for our 8th graders, whereas it was significantly higher for most other countries, including South Africa (whose performance compared to the international average increased 38 points). How then can it be explained that ours DECREASED 40 points? Sweden increased 39 points, the Netherlands, who already scored 25 points higher than us in the 8th grade, increased 13 points, leaving their 12th graders 78 points ahead of ours. Iceland, whose 8th graders scored 41 points lower than ours, increased their scores by 70 points. Norway increased their scores 32 points, Denmark by 46 points, Canada 16 points, New Zealand 18 points, Switzerland 16 points, France 4 points, Cyprus 0 points.

Austria down 23 points
Czech down 72 points
Australia down 3 points
Slovenia down 28 points
Germany down 19 points
Russia down 42 points
US down 40 points
Hungary down 68 points
Lithuania down 1 point

100 Point Standard Deviation

Technically, the standard deviation for standardized tests like this is 100 points. This is the way they are designed. But when measuring the difference between countries, a standard deviation of 100 appears too large. This is what our scores look like with a standard deviation of 100.

Note that the above chart shows that our top 75% percentile didn't even score as high as the average for Canada, yet this graph shows a very large overlap with Canada. 

50 Point Standard Deviation

This is what it looks like with a standard deviation of 50 points, which is still not a good representation of the above chart.  It's about our 60th percentile which has a score similar to the average for Canada.
 

20 Point Standard Deviation

A 20 point standard deviation is a bit of overkill because it puts our 95th percentile on par with Canada's average, whereas the chart above puts our 95th percentile on par with the 75th percentile for France.  The actual standard deviation is somewhere between 20 and 50. 

10 Point Standard Deviation

Within each racial group within the US, the following might be what the Gaussian Distribution actually looks like. 

35 Point Standard Deviation

Doesn't the following graph with a standard deviation of 35 come the closest to representing how our 75th percentile scores are equivalent to the average in Canada?

TIMSS 1995 Math

Real World TIMSS 2007

REAL WORLD

FEMINIST PH.D'S BRAIN ON DRUGS

Also see the Scientific Evidence that Men and Women are Designed Differently

Real World TIMSS 1995 Broken Down By Religion and Race

Less than 5% of American 12th graders scored higher than 515 in TIMSS physics, compared to 75% of Norwegians who did, and 5% of Norwegians, Swedes, Russians, and Germans who scored higher than 725.  The number of Americans who scored as high as 725 is trivial compared to the fact that 99.99% of us scored lower than 550.  If these dismal scores are representative of all 300 million Americans, and there's little reason to believe they aren't, then less than 30,000 have an understanding of physics which even begins to approach the AVERAGE understanding of 4.4 million Norwegians, 8 million Swedes, 82 million Germans, and 162 million Russians.  In other words, in just those four countries, there are 128.2 million people who understand physics better than the top 30,000 here, which is 4,273 Europeans for each one American.

This is most likely how our AMAZINGLY LOW 12th grade TIMSS math score broke down by race in 1995 [read, this is about the only way to explain it]

Protestant White 35%, 570
Catholic White 18%, 450
Other 7%, 388
Asian 3%, 593
Hispanic 24%, 374
Black 13%, 356

8th grade TIMSS 2007 as reported by NCES

Protestant White 35%, 563
Catholic White 18%, 480
Other 7%, 500
Asian 3%, 549
Hispanic 24%, 475
Black 13%, 457


Estimate for 12th grade TIMSS math in 2008 had we taken the test

Protestant White 35%, 545
Catholic White 18%, 360
Other 7%, 349
Asian 3%, 567
Hispanic 24%, 336
Black 13%, 320

Until we make some foundational changes in our education infrastructure, I cannot believe that one single student in public education has or will have improved even one single point,and that instead it's still a lead sled to .ell.

The above is very generous.

Scoring 461 Not Easily Explained

Our unbelievably low 12th grade TIMSS Math score of 461 is almost too low to fathom or explain, which may be one reason our educators appear to have effectively shut it out of their minds.  Cognitive dissonance is difficult to deal with. We can't just presume that the 71% of our students who're Whites scored in the range of Switzerland (538), the 13% who're Hispanics scored in the range of Italy (477), the 3% who're Asians scored in the range of the Netherlands (579), because that would leave a *negative* score for the 13% who're Blacks:

538 x .71 + 477 x .13 + 579 x .03 + .13X = 461

382 + 62 + 17.4 = 461 - .13X, X = -0.4/.13 = -3

Score for American Whites Similar to Italy

A worst case scenario, where American Whites scored in the range of Italy (490), Hispanics in the range of South Africa (356), and Asians in the range of American Whites (490), would leave blacks with a score of 400.  But since this score is higher than that for the presumed score of Hispanics, and since American Hispanics score considerably higher than American Blacks in all other standardized tests, this is just not a possible scenario:

490 x .71 + 356 x .13 + 490 x .03 + .13X = 461

348 + 46.3 + 14.7 + .13X = 461

X = 52/.13 = 400

Score for American Whites Similar to France

An even less likely scenario is that American Whites scored in the range of France (525), Hispanics in a range between Italy and South Africa (436), Asians at least as high as the Netherlands (559), leaving blacks with a score of 111.5.  This is an impossible score because just guessing on the test would yield a score anywhere from 300-427:

525 x .71 + 436 x .13 + 559 x .03 + .13X = 461

373 + 56.7 + 16.8 + .13X = 461

X = 14.5/.13 = 111.5

The Religion Gap

South Africa's score of 356 is a composite of the 9.1% of the population who are Whites, who are mostly descendants of the Netherlands (who scored 560), and the other 90.9% of the population who're either Blacks or Coloreds, who had to have scored an average of 336.  We have no evidence that the 13% of Americans who are Blacks score much lower or much higher than this.  The Catholic Church claims as members 25% of the American population, of whom 13% are Hispanics and 12% are Whites. When the 2% who are jews and the 3% who are Asians are removed, this leaves 57% who are White Protestants who by all rights should have scored as high as their White brethren in Sweden, or 552.  If we assume that Asians scored in the same range, and that Hispanics and jews scored 64 points higher than Blacks, similar to the difference between Hispanics and Blacks in SAT Math, then in order for us to have scored a mere 461, White Catholics would have had to have scored 217.7, an impossibly low score indeed:

336 x 13% + 400 x 13% + 552 x 3% + 12% x X + 57% x 552 + 2% x 400 = 461

43.68 + 52 + 16.56 + .12X + 314.64 + 8 = 461

X = 217.7

French Scenario

A worst case scenario would be that White Protestants scored in the range of their brethren in Australia and France and New Zealand, or 522, that Asians scored no higher than Whites (contrary to most standardized tests) of 522, and that jews, Indians, and Hispanics scored only 40 points higher than Blacks, leaving White Catholics with a score of 396.

336 x 13% + 376 x 13% + 528 x 3% + 12% x X + 57% x 522 + 2% x 376 = 461

43.68 + 48.88 + 15.84 + .12X + 297.54 + 7.52 = 461

X = 396.2

This Religion Gap of 159 TIMSS Math points between White Protestants and White Catholics is beginning to approach the phenomenon revealed by the 220-301 SAT Math point gap between Whites in mostly Protestant states and Whites in mostly Catholic states, suggesting we are getting closer to explaining our amazingly low TIMSS Math Score of 461!

Swede Scenario

Is it impossible that scores for White Protestants would be an average of their Protestant brethren in Sweden, the Netherlands, and Switzerland, or 551, that Asians scored no higher than Whites (contrary to most standardized tests) at 551, and that jews, Indians and Hispanics scored only 40 points higher than Blacks, leaving White Catholics with a score of only 253?  This suggests that Catholic Whites score 83 points lower than Blacks, which explains much about their principles and behavior, particularly their claims about racial equality.

336 x 13% + 376 x 13% + 551 x 3% + 12% x X + 57% x 551 + 2% x 376 = 461

43.68 + 48.88 + 16.53 + .12X + 314.07 + 7.52 = 461

X = 252.7

Since this Religion Gap of 298 TIMSS Math points between White Protestants and White Catholics is so similar to  the 220-301 SAT Math point gap between White Protestants and White Catholics, this would appear to be the most likely explanation for our amazingly low TIMSS Math Score of 461!  Furthermore, it's possible that Asians, Hispanics, and even Blacks, score HIGHER than this, which would INCREASE the Catholic/Protestant gap even further@!

DE-EDUCATION: OUR TWELFTH GRADE GIRLS SCORE 76 POINTS LOWER THAN OUR EIGHTH GRADE BOYS 

Because media, educators, bureaucrats, politicians, and other powers that be studiously ignore the sad state of our high schools, as evidenced by SAT, TIMSS, NAEP, etc., and instead focus only on 8th grade performance, less than 7% of Americans are aware of just how low we scored in TIMSS at the 12th grade level.  Comparing 8th grade scores understates the problem because  45 countries who participated in this study of more than half a million students around the world proved that the last four years of a student's education is the most important part, and 8th grade scores obviously miss that part. Of 45 countries whose 12th graders participated in TIMSS Math, the boys in 35 of those countries scored higher than the 8th grade math score, and those in 7 countries scored lower.  In the US, 12th grade boys scored 56 points lower and 12th grade girls scored 104 points lower.  Where Swiss 8th graders scored 46 points or about one standard deviation higher than ours in math, their 12th grade boys scored 102 points or two standard deviations higher than our boys and 133 points or almost three standard deviations higher than our girls.

How shocked they all would be if they realized that our 12th grade girls scored DEAD LAST in physics, 130 points or almost three standard deviations lower than girls in Norway and almost 200 points or four standard deviations lower than boys in Norway, simply because the scores of American girls from the 8th to 12th grade dropped even faster than our boys, whose scores dropped even more than that for most girls. Conversely, relative to their 8th grade scores, 12th grade boys in Cyprus scored 89 points higher, in Norway scored 84 points higher, and in Sweden scored 66 points higher.

Whatever their high schools are doing that ours aren't we'd better start doing QUICKLY or it won't be long before we're a dark smudge on the "global economy". 

12th grade boys in the US scored a standard deviation lower than 8th grade US boys, whereas 12th grade boys in Cyprus, Norway, and Sweden scored a standard deviation higher than their 8th grade boys.

12th Grade Boys in Mostly-Catholic Countries Score Lower Than Their 8th Grade Boys

But 12th Grade Boys in Mostly-Protestant Countries Score That Much Higher Than Their 8th Grade Boys

Girls Did Even Worse

12th grade girls in the US scored TWO standard deviations lower than 8th grade US girls, whereas 12th grade girls in Cyprus, Greece, and Norway scored higher than their 8th grade girls.

EIGHTH VERSUS TWELFTH GRADE

EVERY nation which participated in this part of TIMSS, which is mostly European nations (and not Asian nations like Korea, Japan, Singapore, and Taiwan who blew the pants off our 8th graders) scored higher, MUCH higher, than us. 

The US is one of the only countries whose 8th and 12th grade boys who participated in TIMSS who experienced such a dramatic drop in scores from 8th to 12th grade.  Where our eighth grade boys scored only 3 points lower than Norway's (502 vs. 505), our twelfth grade boys scored 143 points lower (446 vs. 589, for a RELATIVE decrease of 140 points),   Where our eighth grade boys scored 30 points HIGHER than Cyprus (502 vs. 472), our 12th grade boys scored 115 points lower (446 vs 561) for a 145 point swing.   Latvian boys were 6 points lower at eighth grade but 63 points higher at twelfth grade for a 69 point swing, Denmark 9 points higher at the 8th grade and 94 points higher at the 12 grade for an 85 point swing, Sweden 18 points higher, then 140 points higher for a 122 point swing, Greece 12 points lower then 79 points higher for a 91 point swing, Russia 33 points higher then 117 points higher for a 150 point swing. 

It should be no comfort to us that the amount by which scores decreased for boys from 8th and 12th grade in Austria, the Czech Republic, and France is even greater than the amount by which ours decreased--we should find out why and avoid this pitfall, AT ALL COSTS.  The fact that these countries are predominately Catholic countries (France 88%, Austria 74%, and the Czech Republic 27-60%) suggests that Catholocism's effort to impose "sex equality" on boys IS NOT JUST A HUGE WASTE OF TIME--IT'S INCREDIBLY DESTRUCTIVE!

It doesn't help girls AT ALL--in Austria the 8 point gap between boys and girls increased by 52 points to 60, in the Czech Republic the 11 point gap increased by 63 points to 74, and in France the 6 point gap increased by 27 points to 33.

TWELFTH GRADE TIMSS SCORES

The only reason the gap between American boys and girls increased ten fold, from 5 points in 8th grade to 53 points in the 12th grade [a 9 IQ point gender gap] is that the scores of girls decreased more than the score of boys (104 vs. 56).  By some estimates, the gender gap at the 8th grade was already a standard deviation, and this drop in scores between 8th and 12th grade increased the gender gap to two standard deviations in the US and almost three standard deviations in Slovenia, Sweden, Cyprus, and Switzerland.

	Final report on the 12th grade TIMSS study.
	US ranked DEAD LAST in more 12th grade TIMSS subjects in 1995 than any other nation.
	Graphic tour of negative intelligence.
	How "liberals" are "educated".
	Highlighting the social pathology of the RCC and it's role in destroying education.
	The US scored 19th out of 21 nations in general math.
	Compared to if they had just guessed, American girls scored: 3% lower on Physics Item H09 2% lower on Mechanics Item H04 3% lower on Numbers & Equations Item K02 1% lower on Geometry Item K08 3% higher on Geometry Item K09 16% lower on Geometry Item K10 less than 1% on Numbers & Equations Item K15 5% lower on Probability & Statistics Item L10

	NEWS FLASH:  you thought it couldn't get worse?  It just DID!
	US has one of the lowest high school graduation rates amongst the TIMSS participants.
	Both our 9 year olds and our 13 year olds ranked dead last in IAEP math in 1991.
	Our 13 year olds ranked second to last in IAEP science in 1991.
	We spent more for education than any other country on this table.
	While most countries' 12th graders scored higher than their 4th graders, our 12th graders scored lower than our 4th graders.
	TIMSS questions demonstrated a 33% difference between the sexes in problem solving.
	Zero percent of American 12th grade girls solved simple math problems.
	Zero percent of American 12th grade girls solved simple physics problems.
	TIMSS results are consistent with the SAT scores, ACT scores, NAEP scores, IAEP scores, and GRE Scores.
	"By fifth grade, the best average school score for Minneapolis did not beat the worst Japanese average school score."
	American blacks scored lower than Mozambique and South Africa.
	R. C. Hoiles: 21 reasons to ban public education.
	John Leo: discrimination against boys.
	Julie Foster: end public education.
	John Taylor Gatto on public schools.
	Home schooled 8th graders outscored public schooled 12th graders.
	Critique of TIMSS.
	TIMSS is consistent with other physical, emotional, and intellectual differences between the sexes.
	The truth behind the cover-up of the public school disgrace, by Joseph Farah.
	TIMSS is consistent with differences of opinions between the sexes.
	Ray Moore: a case for abandoning government schools.
	News flash:  the US is first--in punishing children for inappropriate sexual behavior.
	Compared to an 1895 8th grade exam.
	A proposal.

In 8th grade TIMSS physics, the girls in all nations demonstrated they had been taught physics by scoring only slightly lower than the boys in those nations, except in Cyprus, Canada, and Australia where girls scored 3 points higher.  Czech students scored the highest, demonstrating an IQ range of 104, and boys in Cyprus scored the lowest, an IQ range of 83. 

But by the 12th grade, this all changed, dramatically.  Some of the lowest scoring 8th grade boys, like those in Norway, scored the highest in the 12th grade, while some of the highest scoring 8th grade girls, like Czech girls, scored almost last by the 12th grade.  While US boys and girls scored low in the 8th grade, they scored DEAD LAST by the 12th grade. While the IQ gap between boys in Norway and girls in the US in the 8th grade was only 2 points, it was 35 points by the 12th grade.  While the relative IQs of boys in Cyprus increased 25 IQ points, boys in Norway increased 22 IQ points, Sweden increased 18 IQ points, Greece 14 IQ points, Denmark 12 IQ points, Slovenia 11 IQ points, Russia and Latvia 10 IQ points, Germany 7 IQ points, Australia 6 IQ points, and in Canada by 1 IQ point, IQs for boys in the US decreased 3 IQ points. And where the relative IQs of girls in Norway and Cyprus increased 12 points, and in Greece increased 10 points, IQs for girls in the US decreased 11 points. 

All of this resulted in the 1 IQ point average gender gap in the 8th grade increasing to 11 IQ points by the 12th grade.  By the 12th grade, the largest gender gap, 16 IQ points, was in Slovenia, and the smallest, 6 IQ points, was in France.  The greatest increase in the gender gap of 14 IQ points was in Switzerland and Slovenia, and the smallest increase of 4 IQ points was in Greece.  The IQ of 12th grade girls in Norway was 13 IQ points higher than boys in the US, 23 IQ points higher than girls in the US, and 12 IQ points lower than boys in Norway.

Generally, a 10 point gap in IQ is a standard deviation.  The boys in all the nations who participated in TIMSS except France, Latvia, and Greece scored more than a standard deviation higher than the girls of each respective nation, and boys in Switzerland and Slovenia scored almost two standard deviations higher.  The almost gender equality between 8th grade boys and girls in the US turned into more than a standard deviation difference by the 12th grade, 53 TIMSS points or 11 IQ points.

US Was NOT Significantly Lower Than International Average At 8th Grade, but WAS At 12th Grade

Another misperception promulgated by the Education Mafia is that, even though our TIMSS 12th grade scores were some of the worst in the world, our top students on average far outperform many nations. BUT, TIMSS showed, once again, that not even our top students are shining very brightly, with our 90th percentile scoring 383, 49 points lower than Italy's 90th percentile, 64 points lower than Australia's, 106 points lower than Germany's, 104 points lower than Sweden's, 90 points lower than Canada's, 100 points lower than Switzerland's, 143 points lower than Denmark's, a whopping 175 points lower than France's, and even more whopping 194 points lower than Slovenia's 90th percentile. Not only that, but even though our scores WERE reported, we didn't even meet the simple sampling requirements, meaning that our scores would have been even lower if we HAD met them. On TOP of that, even though the 90th percentile of the Czech Republic scored lower than ours (the ONLY which did), the mean achievement of our top 10% was exactly the same as ours, at 485.

ON TOP of that, even though it can be misleading to compare the scaled score from 1995 to the scaled score from 2008, let's give it a shot. In 2008, Iran's 90th percentile scored 629, which is 61 points higher than Italy's 90th percentile score of 568 (who scored 49 points higher than us in 1995, for a swing of 110 points). Iran scored 62 points higher than Slovenia (who scored 194 points higher than us in 1995, for a swing of 256 points), AND even 85 points higher than Sweden (who scored 104 points higher than us in 1995 for a swing of 189 points).

If we HAD participated in TIMSS in 2008, our 90th percentile would have scored in the range of (110 + 194 + 189 /3) = 164 points lower than Iran's, or 465.

Correlating IQ and TIMSS

When this TIMSS data is correlated with Professor Lynn's IQ of Nations, r-squared is .57, showing a close relationship between this historic record of intelligence by nation and the most advanced and comprehensive measure of intelligence of half a million students around the world we've ever witnessed.  Making the assumption that this TIMSS data is more accurate or more up to date or a better assessment of IQ or more representative of the type of student demanded by industry than his data might not be precisely correct, but it enables us to create a template for measuring worldwide IQ by sex using TIMSS scores as a guide.

Based on this test, and this test alone, the greatest decreases required to get an r-squared of almost 1.0 are 9 points for Italy and Canada, 8 points for the US, and 6 points for Germany and Czech Republic.  The greatest increases are 7 points for Denmark, and 5 points for the Netherlands, Sweden, Iceland, and Slovenia.

Is this adjustment justified? In this day and age of electronics and semiconductors, and now semiconductors in every product all the way from cars to watches, de-emphasizing physics education [or in the case of the US, apparently actually sabotaging it] ought to be considered an economic crime, if not an outright criminal act.  Our extremely poor performance in the 8th grade in the first place, coupled with a DROP in scores from 8th grade to 12th grade that few other countries experienced, coupled with the social pathology brought on by multiculturalism, coupled with our having the undisturbed highest rates of divorce, homicide, violent crime, incarceration, and debt the industrialized world has ever seen, it would be amazing if Professor Lynn's estimate of an IQ of 98 for the US isn't 20 points lower rather than just 8 points lower.

Since the exact same thing is happening to the WHITE RACE in Canada, the Czech Republic, Germany, Russia, and Lithuania, the 9, 6, 6, 4, and 5 point drops, respectively, might actually reflect REALITY.  iow, it might actually be true that Professor Lynn is being kind, or is using data from a time BEFORE our multiculturalism disaster, and that TIMSS IS more accurate now.

The 5 and 9 point adjustments for Hungary and Italy, respectively, ARE justified, because multiculturalism had already ruined both countries centuries ago and neither does well in any of the other tests (even in PISA, a test of 15 year olds, both scored much lower than the average, 491 and 462 respectively).  There really isn't a single international test which supports an IQ of 102 for Italy, so if there's any "error" in any of Professor Lynn's data [and my bet is that there's not], then this might be it.

Now we can use this chart to estimate the IQ and thus the IQ gap between 12th grade boys and girls in different countries in a way that our so-called "educators" REFUSE to do (thus causing the complete collapse of God's Orderly Arrangement).  After almost five decades of "affirmative action" in this putative Christian nation, what have we got?  The anchor man (or in this case, the anchor "person") on these tests is the 12th grade American girl at 393, and the rising star is the 12 grade affirmative-action-free Norwegian boy at 589, almost 200 points higher, thanks mostly to the fact that he WAS educated in high school and DID score 84 points higher than Norwegian 8th grade boys (versus our 56 point DROP for boys from 8th to 12th grade).  AND Norwegian girls increased their score from 8th to 12th grade while ours DECREASED them by 104 points.

If our chart is correct, then this 196 TIMSS point gap represents a 35 point gap in IQ, a real monument to the success of multiculturalism.

From that chart, we can now create the following table and get a very accurate representation of IQ from a PHYSICS perspective.  If physics is an important skill to an industrialized nation (which of course it MUST be), then this "gender gap in IQ" within each country of 6 to 16 IQ points, which averages 10.75 points, and which is present in EVERY country, MUST be important: 

And finally we have the following chart which demonstrates very clearly where the winners and losers are.  You will not hear this from the "mainstream media": "Pure race Norwegian girls score 77 points higher than our multicuturalized boys".  Of course you also won't hear: "American boys down 56 points, Norwegian boys up 84 points", nor will you hear: "American girls down 104 points, Cypriot girls up 21 points".

Is it true?  From this perspective, it absolutely positively is true.  Is it important?  It's about a billion times more important than what happened to some suicide bomber who killed an alien enemy foreign jew 12,000 miles away, half a century ago

The Condition of Education 1997, Supplemental Table 20-1

Table 20-1: Average mathematics proficiency scores of eighth-grade students, by country and sex: 1995

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                         Average score                         Percentile distribution
                                  ---------------------------        ---------------------------------------------
Country                            Total      Boys     Girls          5th      25th      50th      75th      95th
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Singapore                            643       642       645          499       584       642       704       792
Korea                                607       615       598          418       540       609       682       786
Japan                                605       609       600          435       536       608       676       771
Hong Kong                            588       597       577          415       526       595       659       742
Belgium (Fl)\1\                      565       563       567          416       502       566       631       710
Czech Republic                       564       569       558          423       496       558       633       725
Slovak Republic                      547       549       545          401       483       543       612       700
Switzerland\2\                       545       548       543          401       485       549       607       685
Netherlands\3\                       541       545       536          397       477       543       604       688
Slovenia\3\                          541       545       537          404       477       535       604       690
Bulgaria\3\                          540        —         —           378       460       530       621       728
Austria\3\                           539       544       536          393       474       537       608       693
France                               538       542       536          415       484       534       591       666
Hungary                              537       537       537          391       471       534       602       693
Russian Federation                   535       535       536          388       471       536       600       687
Australia\3\                         530       527       532          372       460       529       600       690
Canada                               527       526       530          389       468       527       587       670
Ireland                              527       535       520          381       462       526       594       681
Belgium (Fr)\3\                      526       530       524          385       467       532       587       658
Israel\3\                            522       539       509          371       459       523       586       672
Thailand\3\                          522       517       526          388       462       518       580       669
Sweden                               519       520       518          384       460       515       579       661
Germany\1\,\2\,\3\                   509       512       509          368       448       506       572       661
New Zealand                          508       512       503          366       443       503       570       663
England\1\,\2\                       506       508       504          361       443       501       570       665
Norway                               503       505       501          372       445       499       560       649
Denmark\3\                           502       511       494          369       443       500       561       641
United States\2\                     500       502       497          356       435       494       563       653
Scotland\3\                          498       506       490          364       436       493       559       649
Latvia (LSS)\2\                      493       496       491          375       435       487       550       638
Iceland                              487       488       486          365       435       481       540       615
Spain                                487       492       483          376       436       481       536       616
Greece\3\                            484       490       478          347       422       478       546       633
Romania\3\                           482       483       480          343       418       476       544       635
Lithuania\2\                         477       477       478          348       422       473       533       616
Cyprus                               474       472       475          333       412       469       535       621
Portugal                             454       460       449          357       411       449       495       569
Iran, Islamic Rep.                   428       434       421          336       388       424       466       535
Kuwait\3\                            392        —         —           302       355       389       427       493
Colombia\3\                          385       386       384          292       343       379       421       496
South Africa\3\                      354       360       349          259       313       347       386       484
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------         
            

In the following 12 subjects, no country scored lower than American 12th Grade Girls who scored:

1. 22 points lower than American boys and 90 points lower than Greek girls in Numbers & Equations.

2. 41 points lower than American boys and 123 points lower than Cypriot girls in Calculus.

3. 31 points lower than American boys and 121 points lower than French girls in Geometry.

4. 34 points lower than American boys and 139 points lower than Norwegian girls in Physics.

5. 53 points lower than American boys and 130 points lower than Norwegian girls in Mechanics.

6. 21 points lower than American boys and 152 points lower than Swedish girls in Electricity & Magnetism.

7. 6 points lower than American boys and 37 points lower than Norwegian girls in Heat.

8. 18 points lower than American boys and 86 points lower than Swedish girls in Wave Phenomena.

9. 20 points lower than American boys and 92 points lower than Swedish girls in Modern Physics.

10. 31 points lower than American boys and 117 points lower than French girls in Advanced Math.

11. 23 points lower than American boys and 65 points lower than Swedish girls in General Science.

12. 11 points lower than American boys and 77 points lower than Dutch girls in General Math.

Zero percent of American 12th grade girls correctly solved TIMSS math problems.

Zero percent of American 12th grade girls correctly solved TIMSS physics problems.

Among American students on other standardized tests:

	In the quantitative section of the Graduate Record Exam: Mexican boys score 3 points higher than White girls. Mexican boys score 59 points higher than girls who major in education. The average boys' score is 72 points higher than average girls' score. Foreign boys score 171 points higher than American girls. Asian boys score 234 points higher than black girls. Boys who major in engineering score 251 points higher than girls who major in education.
	In the verbal section of the Graduate Record Exam: Asian boys score 5 points higher than White girls. Mexican boys score 23 points higher than girls who major in education. Boys who major in humanities score 114 points higher than girls who major in education. White boys score 124 points higher than black girls.
	In the analytical section of the Graduate Record Exam: Mexican boys score 8 points higher than girls who major in education. Indian boys score 15 points higher than girls who major in education. Hispanic boys score 27 points higher than girls who major in education. Asian boys score 79 points higher than girls who major in education. White boys score 99 points higher than girls who major in education.
	Boys score 46 points higher than girls in SAT math.
	Boys score 2 points higher than girls in ACT math.
	Boys score 5 points higher than girls in NAEP math.
	Boys score 53 points higher than girls in TIMSS physics.
	Boys score 41 points higher than girls in TIMSS calculus.
	Swiss boys score 47 points higher than Swiss girls in TIMSS calculus.
	Boys score 17 points higher than girls in IAEP math.
	Men college graduates earn 66% more than women college graduates.
	Median weekly earnings of men exceed those for women by 35%.
	Men outperform women in Olympic Platform Diving by 46%.
	Men outperform women in Olympic 100 Meter Freestyle by 10%.
	Men outperform women in Olympic Pole Vaulting by infinity.
	Men outperform women in Olympic Shot Put by 31%.
	Men outperform women in Olympic 1500 Meter Run by 9%.
	Men outperform women in Olympic Springboard Diving by 20%.
	Men outperform women as racing champions by infinity.
	Men outperform women as boxing champions by infinity.
	Men outperform women chess champions by infinity.
	Men outperform women as baseball champions by infinity.
	Men outperform women as money winners in golf by 118%.
	Men outperform women as Nobel Peace Prize winners by infinity.
	Men outperform women as Nobel Prize in Physics winners by 76X.
	Men outperform women as Nobel Prize in Chemistry winners by 45X.
	Men outperform women as Nobel Prize in Medicine winners by 25X.
	Men outperform women as Nobel Prize in Literature winners by 13X.
	Men outperform women as Nobel Prize in Economic Science winners by infinity.

7% of American 12th grade girls vs. 40% of boys correctly answered Item G13:

A car moving at constant speed with a siren sounding comes towards you and then passes by.  Describe how the frequency of the sound you hear changes.

This 33% difference between boys and girls in this credible, objective, worldwide study proved that American 12th grade girls have some of the poorest average problem solving skills in the world.

The standard deviation for international TIMSS scores was 100 points, but within each country it was around 40 points as it was in Switzerland and Taiwan. Across 14 different math and physics topics, the gender gap as measured in standard deviations was an average of 0.6 in the US, 1.0 internationally, and 1.4 in Switzerland.  It's not bad for a country for boys to outperform girls--in Switzerland, boys outperformed girls by two standard deviations in mechanics, but still Swiss girls scored 444 compared to 446 for our boys.

If you ignore the standings of all of the other countries, then of course it's meaningless to make the above comparisons. But when you include that US 8th graders ranked 28th out of 41 nations in all math subjects overall, and when you include that our 12th graders ranked 19th out of 21 nations in general math, then you can make a valid, meaningful, revealing comparison.

11 of the countries which scored higher than us in the 8th grade didn't even participate in 12th grade TIMSS. Singapore, Japan and Korea all scored more than 100 points higher at the 8th grade level but they didn't participate in 12th grade TIMSS. If those 11 countries had participated in 12th grade TIMSS, it is almost certain that the US would have then scored 30th out of 32 nations.

The only two countries which scored lower than us in 12th grade level general math were Cyprus and South Africa. But South Africa didn't participate in all of the 12th grade TIMSS subjects, and Cyprus did amazingly well in a number of other subject areas, which put us dead last in 17 of 34 subject areas. 9 of the 13 countries which scored lower than us at the 8th grade level also didn't participate in the 12th grade tests, but 3 of the 4 remaining countries scored much higher in some subjects than we did. Lithuania scored 23 points lower than us at the 8th grade level, but their 12th graders scored 100 points higher in geomety, Cyprus scored 26 points lower at the 8th grade level, but their 12th graders scored 99 points higher in calculus, and Iceland scored 13 points lower than us at the 8th grade level, but their 12th graders scored 73 points higher in general math.

How could this have happened? How could we spend almost twice as much as a percent of GDP than countries like Japan and Korea, where they score at the top of the curve and we score consistently at the bottom?

It's not certain that our 12th graders are less competent in math than our 8th graders. But it is guaranteed that on a relative scale our 12th graders are being grossly shortchanged, because far too many other countries have proven scientifically that they know how to educate high schoolers where we don't. This is such a huge swing that it's hard to imagine that something sinister isn't going on. Maybe it's that the students who don't make it through high school to the 12th grade (which is almost a THIRD of our 18 year olds) are the ones who would have scored the highest on the 12th grade TIMSS, and thus raised our scores to at least a ranking similar to that at the 8th grade. Maybe it's widespread prescription of drugs like Ritalin and Valium which dumbs down our students. Maybe it's steroids in the beef or estrogen in the water. Maybe it's TV programming (not just TV, but the lack of quality of our TV programming).

Or maybe it's just plain flat out incompetent teachers. We need to test them asap so that we KNOW for sure.

General Discussion, Third International Math & Science Study

The 66% of American students who report that they are currently taking mathematics scored 477, compared to 436 for the other 34% who report that they aren't. Compared to students who report that they are NOT currently taking math, this is 26 points lower than the 26% of students in Austria, 19 points lower than the 46% of students in Canada, 16 points lower than 5% of students in the Czech Republic, 4 points lower than 22% of students in Denmark, 28 points lower than 35% of the students in Iceland, 21 points lower than 40% of the students in the Netherlands, 23 points lower than 32% of the students in Norway, 17 points lower than 30% of the students in Sweden, and 36 points lower than 39% of the students in Switzerland.

How can it be that about a third of the students in so many other countries who aren't even interested in or enrolled in math classes score an AVERAGE of 21 points HIGHER than our most advanced and interested 12th grade math students?

Why waste so much money trying to educate our children when we could just PAY children form Norway or Switzerland to come here and raise our scores more than a standard deviation?

New York State United Teachers Briefing Bulletin Research and Educational Services http://nysut.org/research/bulletins/9802timss.html

Latest TIMSS Study Shows U.S. 12th Graders Lagging in Science, Math March 1998 The last part of the massive Third International Math and Science Study (TIMSS) was released in February, showing that U.S. 12th graders lag far behind students in many other countries in science and math. These results add another piece of evidence to the argument that standards for high school graduation are too low in most of the United States. Overall, the TIMSS results paint a very mixed picture of American education. Earlier reports on performance of students in grades 4 and 8 showed fourth graders far ahead of their international peers, and eighth graders about in the middle. The tests were administered in Spring 1995 to samples of students in grades 4, 8, and 12. Grade 12 Results The results for grade 12 showed: American students outperformed students in only 2 of 21 countries in math, and finished significantly below students in 14 countries. American students were significantly below students in 11 of 21 countries in science, and were only significantly ahead of students in two countries. On the advanced math test, of the 15 countries participating, American students were outscored by students in 11 countries. On the advanced science test, of the 15 countries participating, American students were outscored by students in 14 countries, and scored equal to only students in one other country. To make matters worse, the comparisons did not include any students from Asian nations, who tend to outscore American students on most math assessments. The countries included in this study were all European or European-settled nations. The math test included fractions, percentages, graphics, and some algebra. The general science test included earth science, life science, and physical science. The advanced math test included calculus, geometry, and equations. Approximately one-fourth of the test was composed of calculus. Access to this test was limited to students who had taken or were taking pre-calculus, calculus, or Advanced Placement calculus. The advanced science test consisted of physics. Access to this test was limited to students who had taken or were taking physics or Advanced Placement physics. No Excuses Many past excuses for poor performance were examined and refuted. For example, America is said to educate all of its students, while other nations educate a smaller percent. This was not the case here. All participating countries educate over 90 percent of their high school aged student population. America is also thought to have a more diverse student population. This was not the case here. Other participating countries have an equally diverse student population. American students were reputed to watch more television than students in other countries. This was not the case here. Students in other participating countries watch television as much as American students. Finally, some people think that it is the low scores of some American students who pull down the overall scores. This was not the case here, in which other nations' low-scoring students were consistently above American low-scoring students. Why American 12th Graders Score Poorly The prime reason cited for the poor performance of American students is its curricula. Specifically, in typical American middle schools, students continue to do arithmetic, while other countries require algebra and geometry of their middle school aged students. Most American high school students are not required to take four years of mathematics, which is generally required elsewhere. In the United States, only one percent of high school students take AP calculus, which is considered by Americans to be a rigorous course. Finally, over 28 percent of high school mathematics teachers and 55 percent of high school physics teachers in America have neither a major nor minor in the subject, indicating that these teachers, may not be prepared to teach these courses. These results are consistent with earlier reports presented in the American Federation of Teacher's Defining World Class Standards series. These reports showed wide differences between American students and students in other nations in terms of knowledge required in math and science subjects. The AFT called for a common curriculum, common assessments and evaluations for student achievement as ways of achieving the high standards of these other nations. In New York State, the revised graduation requirements include three years of study in mathematics and three years of study in science. Yet only a single Regents exam is required in math and in science. It is unlikely that New York State's new graduation requirements will do much to enhance the showing of American students on future international assessments, even if our requirements were adopted by every other state in the country. The results of fourth graders on the TIMSS assessments were reported in NYSUT Briefing Bulletin Number 97-11 (July 1997) entitled U. S. Students Do Well On TIMSS Fourth Grade Mathematics and Science Achievement Report. The following charts indicate the ranking of students from the participating countries on math and science. Ranking, Scores For 12th-Graders' Math Top tier (well above U.S.): Netherlands (560) Sweden (552) Denmark (547) Switzerland (540) Iceland (534) Norway (528) France (523) New Zealand (522) Australia (522) Canada (519) Austria (518) Slovenia (512) Germany (495) Hungary (483) Middle tier: Italy (476) Russian Federation (471) Lithuania (469) Czech Republic (466) United States (461) Bottom tier: Cypress (446) South Africa (356) Source: Education Department Ranking, Scores for 12th-Graders' Science Top tier (well above U.S.): Sweden (559) Netherlands (558) Iceland (549) Norway (544) Canada (532) New Zealand (529) Australia (527) Switzerland (523) Austria (520) Slovenia (517) Denmark (509) Middle tier: Germany (497) France (487) Czech Republic (487) Russian Federation (481) United States (480) Italy (475) Hungary (471) Lithuania (461) Bottom tier: Cypress (448) South Africa (349) Source: Education Department

12th grade TIMSS

Norway boys 594
Sweden boys 589
Norway girls 544
Denmark boys 542
Germany boys 542
Sweden girls 540
Russia boys 575
Australia boys 532
Switzerland boys 529
Russia girls 509
Cyprus boys 509
Latvia boys 509
Canada boys 506
Czech boys 503
Denmark girls 500
Greece boys 495
US NSF physics boys 494
Australia girls 490
Germany girls 479
France boys 478
Austria boys 479
Cyprus girls 470
Greece girls 468
Latvia girls 467
Canada girls 459
US NSF physics girls 453
France girls 450
Switzerland girls 446
US boys 439
Czech girls 419
Austria girls 408
US girls 405

Copyright @ 2010 by Fathers' Manifesto & Christian Party