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Women Drivers: Hidden Health Risk To Men

Women drive only 30% of miles driven but are in 37% of the fatal accidents

University of Michigan: Women Drivers 50% More Likely than Men Drivers to Crash

Scientific Evidence that Men and Women are Designed Differently

How drunk does a man have to be to drive as dangerously as a sober woman?

Answer:  seven drinks

Man Driver Must Drink 7 Drinks to Drive as Dangerously as a Sober Woman Driver

Update on the TRUTH: 

"The analysis by Connolly, Kimball, and Moulton (1989) mentioned above suggests that female drivers have both a higher overall crash risk and a higher alcohol-related fatal-crash risk. Combined data from FARS and the 1986 National Roadside Breathtesting Survey suggest that the relative fatal-crash risk of a female driver with a BAC of 0.10% or more could be of the order of 50% higher than it is for a male driver at the same BAC. Of course, estimates based on these two unmatched data sets are, as indicated above, are only very rough, but they are consistent with prior case-control studies (see Jones and Joscelyn 1978)."

 

Clues that NHTSA is too much of an advocacy organization to trust their conclusions

The dramatic difference between men and women in hand/eye coordination suggests that women drive far fewer miles than NHTSA estimates.

Women pilots have a crash rate four times higher than men pilots.

Women truckers have a crash rate six times higher than men truckers.

NHTSA data suggests that women drivers are only 70% more likely than men drivers to have a fatal accident.

NHTSA data suggests that a man who drinks and drives increases his probability of having an accident by 4% and ignores that sober women drivers have a probability of having an accident equivalent to that of men drivers with a BAC = 0.12.

  • NHTSA data suggests that if only men drove:

    Traffic accidents would decrease only 22%.

    Only 9,159 lives would be saved each year.

    Only 330,000 lives would be saved over the next 30 years.

    Only $44 billion per year would be saved in crash repair costs.

  • Their data suggests that if only women drove:

    There would be 23,879 more traffic fatalities each year.

    There would be 7,674 more women killed each year.

 

 

"I've been hit by a woman putting on makeup and another texting, both times they LIED to the police officer and I was blamed, so now I pay really high insurance premiums.

Both times the officer was a female..."

And that's the MAIN flaw with these statistics--they greatly under-represent the role women drivers play in accidents, particularly those with men.


 

http://ns.umich.edu/htdocs/releases/story.php?id=8432

Women drivers involved more than men in certain kinds of crashes

 

Women drivers involved more than men in certain kinds of crashes Photo courtesy of Morguefile.com user anitapatterson

ANN ARBOR, Mich.�While men and women often disagree about which gender has better driving skills, a new study by the University of Michigan may shed some light on the debate.

Using data from a nationally representative sample of police-reported crashes from 1988 to 2007, Michael Sivak and Brandon Schoettle of the U-M Transportation Research Institute studied the gender effects in six different crash scenarios (based on crash angles, direction of approach and speed). These two-vehicle crash scenarios included various maneuvers in which one vehicle turned in front of the other, one vehicle side-swiped the other or both vehicles collided head-on.

"The likelihood that a given driver will be involved in a two-vehicle crash depends on a variety of driver, vehicular and environmental factors," said Sivak, research professor at UMTRI. "There are three dominant driver-related factors, including the probability of being at the wrong place at the wrong time, one's own driving skills and the driving skills of the other driver involved."

Sivak and Schoettle compared the actual frequencies of different combinations of involved male and female drivers in the six crash scenarios with the expected frequencies if there were no gender differences. The expected frequencies were based on annual distance driven for personal travel by male and female drivers.

Because men drive about 60 percent of those annual miles and women drive 40 percent, men are expected to be involved in a higher percentage of crashes for each scenario, road conditions and driving skills being equal.

But the researchers found that crashes involving two female drivers were overrepresented in five of the six crash scenarios, including two by at least 50 percent more and two others by more than 25 percent greater than what was expected.

On the other hand, crashes involving two male drivers were underrepresented in four of the six scenarios, including two by more than 20 percent and another by just less than 20 percent. In crash scenarios involving both male and female drivers, actual frequencies tended to be close to the expected frequencies.

"The results indicate that in certain crash scenarios, male-to-male crashes tend to be underrepresented and female-to-female crashes tend to be overrepresented," Sivak said. "This pattern of results could be due to either differential gender exposure to the different scenarios, differential gender capabilities to handle specific scenarios or differential expectations of actions by other drivers based on their gender.

"In all, success in handling on-road conflicts depends not only on psychomotor ability but also on the outcome of complex social interactions between traffic participants. In turn, these interactions are influenced by expectations based on prior experience�and a set of common stereotypical expectations that drivers have concerning the behavior of male and female drivers."

 

 

 

 

 

�Final Report,  Alcohol Highway Safety: Problem Update

 

"The analysis by Connolly, Kimball, and Moulton (1989) mentioned above suggests that female drivers have both a higher overall crash risk and a higher alcohol-related fatal-crash risk. Combined data from FARS and the 1986 National Roadside Breathtesting Survey suggest that the relative fatal-crash risk of a female driver with a BAC of 0.10% or more could be of the order of 50% higher than it is for a male driver at the same BAC. Of course, estimates based on these two unmatched data sets are, as indicated above, are only very rough, but they are consistent with prior case-control studies (see Jones and Joscelyn 1978).

"Donovan et al. (1990) examined the driver records of a 1% sample of all licensed drivers in the State of Washington in 1979. They found that, overall, 2.1% of these 39,011 drivers were arrested for DWI during a three-year follow-up period. However, these rates were quite different for male and female drivers, the rate for males being 3.4% compared to only 0.7% for females."

 

Most Conservative Estimate 

USA = 5,896 cars per fatal accident

17.0 fatal accidents per 100,000 cars

X = fatal accidents per 100,000 cars for men

1.5X = fatal accidents per 100,000 cars for women

0.75 x X + .25 x 1.5X = 17.0

1.125X = 17.0

X = 15.1

1.5X = 22.7

6,622 cars per fatal accident for men

4,412 cars per fatal accident for women

 

To see the original peer reviewed pdf report click here or here.

 

The analysis by Connolly, Kimball, and Moulton (1989) mentioned above suggests that female drivers have both a higher overall crash risk and a higher alcohol-related fatal-crash risk. Combined data from FARS and the 1986 National Roadside Breathtesting Survey suggest that the relative fatal-crash risk of a female driver with a BAC of 0.10% or more could be of the order of 50% higher than it is for a male driver at the same BAC. Of course, estimates based on these two unmatched data sets are, as indicated above, are only very rough, but they are consistent with prior case-control studies (see Jones and Joscelyn 1978).

Donovan et al. (1990) examined the driver records of a 1% sample of all licensed drivers in the State of Washington in 1979. They found that, overall, 2.1% of these 39,011 drivers were arrested for DWI during a three-year follow-up period. However, these rates were quite different for male and female drivers, the rate for males being 3.4% compared to only 0.7% for females.

 

 

 

 

World Health Organization Report

While this report listed the following top Ten Deadliest and top Ten Safest countries in terms of total traffic accidents per capita, when recalculated as the number of cars per fatal accident, the Marshall Islands and West Bank become the Ten Deadliest rather than the Ten Safest.  In addition, almost all of the African nations included in the study, because of the low proportion of ownership of motor vehicles, are deadlier than most of the Ten Deadliest.

Roads in the US are 9 times more deadly than San Marino, 4 times more deadly than Malta, 2 1/2 times more deadly than Switzerland, and about twice as deadly as the UK or Germany. But roads in the Central African Republic are 590 times as deadly as ours, in Kenya are 159 times as deadly, in Ethiopia are 59 times as deadly, in Gambia are 22 times as deadly, and in India are 9 times as deadly.

 

Ten Deadliest


1 Eritrea 1/751
2 Cook Islands 1/1782
3 Eqypt 1/269
4 Jamahirya 1/854
5 Afghanistan 1/854
6 Iraq 1/1161
7 Niger 1/133
8 Angola 1/285
9 UAE 1/1661
10 Gambia 1/267

Ten Safest


1 Marshall Isl 1/2487
2 San Marino 1/51590
3 Malta 1/25437
4 Uraguay 1/6566
5 Netherlands 1/11205
6 Singapore 1/3978
7 Switzerland 1/14476
8 West Bank 1/418
9 Norway 1/11158
10 Japan 1/13764


Misc

Ethiopia 1/100
Canada 1/6945
China 1/1503
United Kingdom 1/10,409

Thailand 1/2051
South Africa 1/573
India 1/688
USA 1/5896
USA men 1/6,622
USA women 1/4,412
USA BAC between 0.2 and 0.8 1/5,896
USA BAC 2.0 1/4,127
Germany 1/11217
Central African Republic 1/10
Kenya 1st WHO report 1/37

 

 


 

There are several key pieces of data missing from the NHTSA web site which make it difficult but not impossible to calculate accident rates by race and sex, while the site is flooded with erroneous (and intentionally misleading) information about the adverse effects of drinking and driving.  The data which is suspiciously absent from this voluminous data base is:

  • Accident rates broken down by race.
  • The actual number of miles driven by women.
  • The number of drivers who routinely drink and drive.
  • Combinations of the above.

The sparse data available from NHTSA would lead one to believe that women drove 30% of the1.5 trillion miles traveled by passenger cars and were 37.1% of the 53,237 drivers involved in accidents resulting in 41,967 traffic fatalities in 1999.  This means that NHTSA believes (and expects us to believe) that, per mile driven, women are only 37% more likely than men to be involved in a fatal accident.  Such a theory is simply not consistent with other observations, like those above, and we hereby challenge NHTSA to produce the actual facts.

Additionally, countries like Sweden, England, and Ireland where there are no blacks on the road, and where drivers license testing prevents them from driving in those countries, consistently have motor vehicle fatality rates less than ONE THIRD of ours.  What this means that, in addition to women drivers being such a health risk for men, American blacks are directly responsible for an ADDITIONAL 30,000 American lives lost on the road EVERY YEAR.

NHTSA Data

Women

Men

Total

Ratio

Percent Women

Billion Miles Driven

455.5

1,056.1

1,511.6

0.43

30.1%

Drivers in Fatal Accidents

19,750

33,487

53,237

0.59

37.1%

Accidents per billion miles

43.36

31.71

35.22

1.37

 

womendrivers.gif (15728 bytes)

The above is the conclusion you might have reached had you queried the FARS data base on October 30, 2000 which showed that women drivers were involved in only 37% of fatal accidents.  But if you take a close look by vehicle type, you will see that women were 15,181 or 43% of the 35,510 drivers of passenger cars:

  • 38.6% in convertibles
  • 37.6% in two door sedans.
  • 38.3% in three door hatchbacks
  • 45.2% in four door sedans.
  • 46.8% in five door hatchbacks
  • 43.3% in station wagons.
  • 50% in hatchbacks, "number doors unknown".
  • 46% of minivans.

In other words, because the 1.5 trillion vehicle miles driven is for passenger cars only, we must compare that only to accidents involving passenger cars.  The following more accurate table shows that women drivers are 73% more likely to have a fatal accident than men drivers, rather than only 37%.

Passenger Vehicles Only

Women

Men

Total

Ratio

Percent Women

Billion Miles Driven

456

1,056

1,512

0.43

30.1%

Drivers in Fatal Accidents

15,181

20,329

35,510

0.75

42.8%

Accidents per billion miles

33.33

19.25

23.49

1.73

nhptswomendrivers.gif (11742 bytes)

Ocbober 30, 2000

1999 Annual Report File

Accident Counts by Vehicle Body and Sex in 1999

Search Conditions Search Results 1999 Statistics
Year=1999 37,043 37,043
Sex
Blank Male Female Unknown Total
13348719750105737,043

However, there are a number of reasons to be suspicious of NHTSA's claim that women drive 30% of VMT (vehicle miles of travel):

  1. It would require us to believe that women are only 70% more likely than men to have accident when driving a passenger car but six times more likely when driving a truck.
  2. It would require us to believe that men truckers have a higher accident rate than women drivers of passenger cars (85.6 vs. 33.3 accidents per billion miles).
  3. While not broken down by sex, Table No 1093 of the 2003 Statistical Abstract of the United States suggests that women drive only 14.3% of VMT.

It's hard to imagine that women who drive trucks are six times more likely to have a fatal accident than men who drive trucks, but that women who drive passenger cars are only 70% more likely than men who drive passenger cars.   Or that women who drive passenger cars are less likely than men who drive trucks to have a fatal accident.  It would be expected that women who drive passenger cars would have an accident rate higher than men which is equivalent to the amount by which women truckers have more accidents than men truckers, or 6X.

ULTRA-CONSERVATIVE CALCULATION

Even accepting the NHTSA data at face value, the higher probability that women will have an automobile accident contributes to an increase in the accident rate for men.  The calculations for the most conservative figure of 35% are shown below to enable a comparison to be made to the results of the 56% figure.  To determine exactly how much higher the accident rate for men is because of women drivers it is necessary to calculate the rate per one million miles that both men and women are expected to have an accident.  If we let Nm be the number of accidents per million miles that a man is expected have a single driver auto accident, and Nf that a woman will, then we have two equations and two variables.  The total number of accidents per million miles that a man is expected to have an accident, Rm, is the sum of his likelihood per million miles of having a single driver accident Nm, the square of this probability to represent a two driver accident involving another man Nm2, and Nm  times Nf  to represent a two driver accident involving a woman.  For simplicity, accidents involving more than two drivers are omitted, but they are rare enough that the ratios below won't change significantly and it is unlikely that the probability of either sex to have a multiple car crash is much different than the probability of a two driver crash:

(Nm +  .65Nm2  +.35 NmNf) x 965 billion miles driven = 2,418,799 accidents

Rm = Nm +  .65Nm2  + .35NmNf = 2.5

The equation for women is similar:

(Nf +  .35Nf2  + .65NmNf) x 513 billion miles driven = 1,701,043 accidents

Rf = Nf +  Nf2  + NmNf = 3.3

Nf = (2.5 - Nm - .65Nm2)/.35Nm

(2.5 - Nm - .65Nm2)/.35Nm + 2.857(6.25 -5Nm - 2.25Nm2 + 1.3Nm3 + .4225Nm4 )/Nm2 + 1.857(2.5 -Nm - .65Nm2) = 3.3    

1.155Nm2  = 2.5Nm - Nm2 - .65Nm3 + 6.25 - 5Nm - 2.25Nm2 + 1.3Nm3 + .4225Nm4 + 1.6429Nm2 - .65Nm3 - .4225Nm4

2.7621Nm2  + 2.5Nm   = 6.25

Nm = 1.11829 = The number of single driver accidents per million miles that that a man is expected to have.

Nf = 1.4533 = The number of single driver accidents per million miles that that a woman is expected to have.

Nf = 1.3 x Nm

If all drivers were men who drove the 1,478 billion miles which are currently driven by both men and women, the total accident rate would be 2.37 accidents per million miles, for a total of 3,497,018 drivers in accidents:

(Nm + Nm2) x 1,478,000 million miles = 3,501,179 drivers in accidents.

If all drivers were women who drove the 1,478 billion miles which are currently driven by both men and women, the total accident rate would be 3.67 accidents per million miles, for a total of  5,417,947 drivers in accidents:

(Nf + Nf2) x 1,478,000 million miles =  5,269,840 drivers in accidents.

With the assumption that women drive 35% of all miles, if only men drove today, the number of drivers in accidents would decrease from 4,119,842 to 3,501,179 per year, a reduction of 16.9%.  If only women drove, the number of drivers in accidents would increase from 3,497,018 to 5,269,840 per year, a 28.7% increase and there would be 50% more accidents than if only men drove.  Women who have accidents with men increase men's overall accident rate per million miles from 2.37 to 2.51, a 5.5% increase.

Men

Women

Total

Miles Driven (billions)

965.134

513

1,478

Drivers in crashes per year

2,418,799

1,701,043

4,119,842

Current crash rate per million miles

2.51

3.32

1.32

Single driver crash rate per million miles

1.1164

1.485

1.33

Crash rate with one same sex driver

0.813865871

0.765213075

Crash rate with one opposite sex driver

0.575275338

1.082578662

Total crash rate with both sexes driving

2.505541209

3.332791737

1.33

Current total drivers in crashes

2,418,183

1,709,276

0.71

Crash rate with only one sex driving

2.36274896

3.690225

1.56

Drivers in crashes with only one sex driving all miles

3,492,143

5,454,153

1.56

At current traffic fatality rates, the average man who drives 15,000 miles per year for fifty years has a 1.91% probability of dying in a traffic crash.  But a non-drinking woman driving the same distance has a 5.63% probability of dying in a traffic crash, almost three times as high.  Because men are safer drivers per mile driven, if only men drove all of the miles currently driven by both men and women, his probability would decrease to 1.59%, which would save a quarter of a million lives over the next three decades.  Contrary to popular belief, the NHTSA data shows that the drinking man driver has a better traffic safety record than the non-drinking man driver, with a probability over 50 years of only 0.82%.  If only drinking men drove all the miles currently driven by both men and women, almost a million lives would be saved over the next 3 decades, compared to only 157,000 lives which would be expected to be saved by the use of seat belts over that time.

Conversely, if only women drove those same miles in that same timeframe, there would be almost half a million additional traffic fatalities.

Probability of death over 50 years

Men's Annual Mortality Rate

Men's Rate Over 50 Years

Women's Annual Mortality Rate

Women's  Rate Over 50 Years

Heart disease

0.003601

18.00%

0.003733

18.7%

If alcohol consumption were increased enough to reduce heart disease deaths 10%

0.00324

16.20%

0.00336

16.8%

Cancer

0.00282

14.09%

0.00257

12.9%

Firearms

0.00020

1.00%

0.00005

0.25%

Non-automobile accidents

0.00032

1.62%

0.00019

0.94%

AIDS

0.00025

1.26%

0.00005

0.25%

Sodomites

0.60665

3033.24%

1.09766

5488.32%

Pneumonia and flu

0.00038

1.90%

0.00046

2.29%

Suicide

0.00025

1.25%

0.00005

0.25%

Diabetes

0.00028

1.38%

0.00034

1.71%

Cirrhosis

0.00016

0.82%

0.00002

0.12%

Wife murdered by husband

0.0000037

0.02%

Woman murdered by other than husband

0.00003

0.17%

Child murdered by mother

0.0000107

0.0533%

0.00000710

0.04%

Child murdered by father

0.0000002

0.0011%

0.00000014

0.0007%

 

Auto accidents at 15,000 miles per year

 

Fatality rate per mile

0.0000000255

0.0000000338

Fatality rate per billion miles

25.53

33.78615323

Non-drinking driver

0.000710

3.55%

0.001126

5.63%

Current average rate

0.000383

1.91%

0.000507

2.53%

If only men drove

0.000318

1.59%

If eliminating drinking and driving would decrease fatal traffic accidents by 4%

0.000368

1.84%

0.000487

2.43%

If seat belts aren't worn

0.000423

2.11%

0.000559

2.80%

If only women drove

0.000493

2.46%

Average crash fatality rate of drinking man

0.000165

0.82%

If only drinking men drove

0.000137

0.68%

 

Percent Change

Men

Total

Men, 30 years

Total, 30 yrs

Difference, men, 30 years

Difference, total, 30 yrs

Current annual traffic fatalities

24,639

41,967

887,012

1,510,812

Fatalities if only men drove

16.93%

20,467

34,860

736,808

1,254,975

-150,205

-255,837

If only drinking men drove

64.27%

8,803

14,993

316,894

539,752

-570,119

-971,060

If only women drove

-28.72%

31,715

54,020

1,141,755

1,944,705

254,743

433,893

If only men drove without seat belts

-10.40%

27,202

46,332

979,262

1,667,936

92,249

157,124

If eliminating alcohol reduced accidents 4%

4.00%

23,654

40,288

851,532

1,450,380

-35,480

-60,432

If only non-drinking women drove

194.09%

72,461

123,421

2,608,612

4,443,144

1,721,600

2,932,332

Difference between drinking men and non-drinking women

2,291,719

3,903,391

 

Factor

Ratio

child murder:wife murder

4.9

boys murdered mother:father

49.4

girls murdered mother:father

49.4

non-drinking woman:drinking man

6.8

 

The results of the National Personal Transportation Survey, which are in a pdf file located at http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/1983/vol1pt1.pdf show that women drive only 30% of all miles, and men drive 70%, which changes the ratios considerably.  This would mean that women are 56% more likely per mile than men to have an accident rather than only 33%.  This means that if only men drove that there would be 2.22 accidents per million miles, which is 21.8% lower than the current rate of 2.84 crashes per million miles, which would save 9,159 lives per year.  This is also 8.3% lower than men's current crash rate of 2.42, which means that 8.3% or 200,760 of the accidents which men currently have are caused by women drivers.  If only women drove, the accident rate would be 4.46 accidents per million miles, which is 57% higher than the current total crash rate and 18% higher than women's current crash rate of 3.78, which would increase the number of traffic fatalities by 23,893 per year.  Over the next thirty years, based on the current population growth projection of 1.1% per year, there would be 336,000 fewer traffic fatalities if only men drove.  Conversely, there would be 877,000 more traffic fatalities if only women drove.

This data shows that if only men drove, the cost to repair automobile crashes would be between $30 billion to $44  billion less, and 9,159 of the 41,967 lives currently lost each year to auto accidents would be saved.  Over the next three decades, this is a savings of as much as $1.6 trillion and 336,000 lives.

Passenger Vehicles

Men

Women

Percent

Total

Miles Driven (billions)

1000

450

1,450

Drivers in crashes per year

2,418,799

1,701,043

4,119,842

Current crash rate per million miles

2.42

3.78

56.3%

2.84

Single driver crash rate per million miles

1.072

1.67

55.8%

Crash rate with one same sex driver

0.79

0.87

Crash rate with one opposite sex driver

0.56

1.23

Total crash rate with both sexes driving

2.42

3.77

55.8%

Current total drivers in crashes

2,420,132

1,696,576

-29.9%

Single driver crashes, one sex driving

1,554,400

2,421,500

55.8%

Two driver crashes, one sex driving

1,666,317

4,043,905

142.7%

Crash rate with only one sex driving

2.22

4.46

100.7%

Drivers in crashes with only one sex driving all miles

3,220,717

6,465,405

2.01

3,244,688

Number of drivers in single driver accidents

1,071,409

753,479

44.3%

44.4%

Number of drivers in same sex accidents

792,104

390,510

32.7%

23.0%

Number of drivers in opposite sex accidents

555,286

557,055

22.9%

32.8%

Change if only one sex drove

-899,125

2,345,563

3,244,688

change in percent

-21.8%

56.9%

Total accidents

1,745,104

1,227,261

2,972,365

Current fatalities, both sexes driving

 

41,967

Fatalities with one sex driving

32,808

65,860

Difference per year in number of fatalities

-9,159

23,893

Difference in number of fatalities over 30 years

-336,167

+876,955

 

wpe4.gif (8615 bytes)

If you were to believe all of the claims made by the NHTSA (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration) Report DOT HS 808 770, you would believe that all kinds of new laws (DUI Laws, Helmet Laws, Safety Laws, Minimum Age Drinking Laws, Open Container Laws, Repeat Intoxicated Driver Laws, Bicycle Helmet Laws, Air Bag Laws, Child Passenger Laws, etc) saved 21,880 lives in one year.  However, the actual decrease in the number of fatalities due to the decrease in the motor vehicle fatality rate was only 4,423, which is 17,457 fewer than all the claims.  It is suspicious that NHTSA claims that the percent of alcohol-related fatalities decreased from 51% in 1987 to 30.3% in 1997, when such a decrease is almost equal to the actual total decrease in traffic fatalities.   It is also contradictory to police reports in the Statistical Abstract of the United States which report that only 4% of all accidents are "alcohol involved".

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wpe3.gif (8960 bytes) 

References:

 

 

 


 

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