Women Drivers Are a Serious Health Risk For Men
The higher probability that women will have an automobile accident contributes to an increase in the accident rate for men. The most conservative estimate of the percent of miles which women drive, which is 34.7%, is used for this calculation. However, some data shows that women drive only 30% of all miles, which produces a significantly higher accident rate for women, which is included below. To determine exactly how much higher the accident rate for men is because of women drivers it is necessary to calculate the rate per one million miles that both men and women are expected to have an accident. If we let Nm be the number of accidents per million miles that a man is expected have an auto accident, and Nf that a woman will, then we have two equations and two variables. The total number of accidents per million miles that a man is expected to have an accident, Rm, is the sum of his likelihood per million miles of having a single driver accident Nm, the square of this probability to represent a two driver accident involving another man Nm2, and the Nm times Nf to represent a two driver accident involving a woman:
(Nm + Nm2 + NmNf) x 965 billion miles driven = 2,418,799 accidents
Rm = Nm + Nm2 + NmNf = 2.5
The equation for women is similar:
(Nf + Nf2 + NmNf) x 513 billion miles driven = 1,701,043 accidents
Rf = Nf + Nf2 + NmNf = 3.32
Nm = (3.32 - Nf - Nf2)/Nf
(3.32 - Nf - Nf2)/Nf + (11.0224 -6.64Nf - 5.64Nf2 + 2Nf3 + Nf4 )/Nf2 + 3.32 -Nf -Nf2 = 2.5
3.32Nf - Nf2 - Nf2 + 11.0224 -6.64Nf - 5.64Nf2 + 2Nf3 + Nf4 + 3.32Nf2 - Nf3 - Nf4 = 2.5Nf2
3.32Nf + 5.82Nf2 = 11.0224
Nf = 1.087 = The number of accidents per million miles that that a woman is expected to have.
Nm = 0.213 = The number of accidents per million miles that that a man is expected to have.
Nf = 5.1 x Nm
If all drivers were men who drove the 1,478 billion miles which are currently driven by both men and women, the total accident rate would be 0.26 accidents per million miles, for a total of 380,480 accidents:
(Nm + Nm2) x 1,478,000 million miles = 381,869 accidents
If all drivers were women who drove the 1,478 billion miles which are currently driven by both men and women, the total accident rate would be 2.27 accidents per million miles, for a total of 3,352,945 accidents:
(Nf + Nf2) x 1,478,000 million miles = 3,352,945 accidents
If only men drove today, accidents would decrease from 2,059,921 to 380,480 per year, a reduction of 81%. If only women drove, accidents would increase from 2,059,921 to 3,352,945 per year, a 63% increase and there would be 8.8 times as many accidents as if only men drove. Women who have accidents with men increase men's overall accident rate per million miles from 0.26 to 2.5, an increase of 860%.
If only men drove all 1,478 billion miles currently driven by both men and women, the annual economic loss to automobile accidents would be between $121.5 billion of the $150 billion less, and 36,450 of the 45,000 lives currently lost each year to auto accidents would be saved. Over the next two decades, this is $2-3 trillion and 730,000 lives, not considering population growth.
Per Traffic Safety Facts' "Vehicle Miles of Travel, 1975-1996" http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/www/cfm/library/rpt_info.cfm?index=Trends:Occupants&recordid=0 Americans drove passenger cars 1,478 billion miles in 1995.
Per the "Early Results Report" of the Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey http://www-cta.ornl.gov/npts/1995/Doc/index.shtml men drive 65% or 965 billion and women drive 513 billion of those miles.
Per Traffic Safety Facts' "Drivers Involvement in Crashes" from the FARS data base http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/www/cfm/library/rpt_info.cfm?index=People:Drivers&recordid=0 male drivers were involved in 2,418,799 fatal and injury crashes and female drivers were involved in 1,701,043.
Per mile driven, women have one third more fatal or injury crashes than men, 3.3 vs. 2.5 per one million miles driven, and 17% more property damage only accidents, 5.86 vs. 5.02.
Per the National Safety Council http://www.nsc.org/lrs/statinfo/af78.htm the economic cost of motor vehicle crashes in 1997 was $200.3 billion.
Per the 1994 Statistical Abstract of the United States, Table 1023, police departments report that 5% of all traffic crashes are "alcohol-involved" Table No. 1041
If you were to believe all of the claims made by the NHTSA (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration) Report DOT HS 808 770, you would believe that all kinds of new laws (DUI, Helmet, Safety) saved 19,534 lives. However, the actual decrease in the number of fatalities due to the decrease in the motor vehicle fatality rate was only 7,920, which is 11,614 fewer than all the claims. It is suspicious that NHTSA claims that the percent of alcohol-related fatalities decreased from 51% in 1987 to 30.3% in 1997, when such a decrease is almost equal to the actual total decrease in traffic fatalities. It is also contradictory to the Statistical Abstract which reports that police reports show that only 5% of all accidents are "alcohol involved".
The DOT estimates, however, that women http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/1983/vol1pt1.pdf drive only 30% of all miles, and men drive 70%, which would mean that women are 56% more likely per mile than men to have an accident rather than only 33%. If only men drove, based on these figures there would be 2.22 accidents per million miles, which is 21.8% lower than the current rate of 2.84 crashes per million miles, which would save 9,159 lives per year. This is also 8.3% lower than men's current crash rate of 2.42, which means that 8.3% or 200,760 of the accidents which men currently have are caused by women drivers. If only women drove, the accident rate would be 4.46 accidents per million miles, which is 57% higher than the current total crash rate and 18% higher than women's current crash rate of 3.78. This would increase the number of traffic fatalities by 23,893 per year.
Over the next thirty years, based on the current population growth projection of 1.1% per year, there would be 336,000 fewer traffic fatalities if only men drove. Conversely, there would be 877,000 more traffic fatalities if only women drove.