9:00 AM, Sept 14, 2011

So where does that leave us with that mythical Ashkenazi Jew with an IQ of 122, or in particular, that entire flock, bevy, race, ethnic group, or sheep, of them? At least .5 SD further away from utterly impossible? Using the standard deviation provided by TIMSS, and assuming the impossible at this outter extreme of the data, a typical Gaussian Distribution, we see that the gap between Hong Kong with an IQ of 107 and Israel with a score of 413 is now a whopping six standard deviations. And that means that even if there were 100 million Jews on the planet (an order of magnitude more than there actually are), that not even ONE would score 107. Of the 3,294 Israeli students who DID take TIMSS, only 5 scored 551, and that’s a score two standard deviations lower than Hong Kong. And THAT puts the IQ of the top five scoring Israeli students at an IQ of 92 (using 15 points as the standard deviation for IQ’s). The amount of territory between an IQ of 92 and an IQ of 122 as the AVERAGE for Ashkenazi Jews is something you could park the Starship Enterprise in–along with the entire galaxy it travels in, plus a few more.

6:00 AM, Sept 14, 2011

Many have accepted Lynn’s argument that there’s at least one standard deviation of separation between Ashkenazi Jews and Sephardic Jews. What many of us didn’t know before is that the phrase “Orthodox Jews” is a veiled reference to Sephardic Jews, AND that this HALF of Israeli Jews are excluded from taking tests like TIMSS. So Israel’s REAL TIMSS score is made up of two parts: Ashkenazi Jews who score 463, and Sephardic Jews, Orthodox Jews, and the 2% who are Christians (down from 42% in 1929) who score 364. And this means that Israel’s REAL TIMSS score is 413, AT BEST. This puts Israel in league with Iran (IQ of 84), Bahrain (IQ of 83), Indonesia (IQ of 89), and Syria (IQ of 87).

Israel is also unique as one of the few countries who report that their girls score higher than their boys. Conversely, boys in countries which score almost two standard deviations higher, like Hong Kong, score 21 points higher than girls. Is it that the lower a country scores, the smaller is the amount by which boys score higher than girls? Or is a bit more sinister? Could it be that feminized countries like Israel, who report girls score HIGHER than boys, simply can’t grasp simple truths? This is yet another reason not to trust Israel to adequately monitor their own education system, much less to report their scores accurately and honestly. Their female education minister, Limor Livnat, has yet to answer Dan Ben-David’s question, which is why did you say “There was no difference between 1999 and 2003 in the degree of sample representativeness. […] In other words, Israel did not ‘exclude’ the ultra-orthodox in order to extract itself from a low ranking and it did not ‘raise the rate of exclusion by 41%’.” when this is EXACTLY what TIMSS reported?

Limor Livnat LOVES lies. How poetic.

http://www.tau.ac.il/~danib/articles/AnotherLessonEng.htm

What’s missing from the following excellent expose of Israeli intelligence (or lack thereof) is that, in addition to the 22.5% exclusion rate, they also did not meet the 90% sampling requirement. If it was as low as 75%, then almost HALF, or 47.5%, of Israelis were excluded from TIMSS. And htis means their scores could have been jackedup 80 points, not just 20-40 points.

Dan Ben-David

Tel-Aviv University

It is most unfortunate that there is no precise Hebrew translation for the expression “they just don’t get it.” Of all the explanations that could possibly explain the recent behavior of the heads of Israeli’s educational system, minister Limor Livnat and director general Ronit Tirosh, this one is the most favorable to them – though there are several others that are probably more accurate.

They gave their first lesson in public integrity during a press conference in which they announced substantial improvements in the achievements of Israeli pupils in the recent TIMSS math and science tests. The second lesson was provided when they reacted to my article (Haaretz, Dec 23, 2003) on their assertions.

As written in the article, the improvement was attained when Israel excluded 22.5% of the population from the sample (among others, the entire unltra-orthodox population was excluded). Ronit Tirosh, in a radio interview with Rafi Reshef: “The doctor did not bother […] to check if his data is correct. Are his claims correct? Well, they are completely groundless!” Reshef: “Were 22.5% excluded?” Tirosh: “No way. 15% were excluded, and incidentally, I don’t have the exact data.”

So maybe it is time for the exact data to reach the director general of the education ministry before she reaches a microphone again. They can be found on page 352 of the TIMSS 2003 mathematics report. As stated in table A6, Israel excluded 22.5% of the population – compared with an average of 2.8% for all the other countries for whom test results were published.

Professor Ruth Zuzovsky, who heads the TIMSS project in Israel, responded in an Haaretz oped: “There was no difference between 1999 and 2003 in the degree of sample representativeness. […] In other words, Israel did not ‘exclude’ the ultra-orthodox in order to extract itself from a low ranking and it did not ‘raise the rate of exclusion by 41%’.”

It might be useful for Prof. Zuzovsky to refresh her memory with the help of page 325 in the TIMSS 1999 mathematics report. An exclusion rate of 16% appears only alongside Israel’s name. Outside of the educational system, it is not uncommon to calculate the change from 16 to 22.5 as an increase of 41% in the exclusion rate. Since there was no comparable growth in any of the relevant populations – ultra-orthodox, immigrants, etc. – then what exactly occurred differently with this particular exam? That is the first important problem that arises.

The director general and the professor do not understand what all the fuss is about. As Zuzovsky writes, after all “the desired population of the TIMSS survey are all of the 8th grade students in the regular education, who study the complete official educational program (in math and science).”

But that is exactly the crux of the second major problem. The important issue is not whether the results reflect the chosen sample, but that the sample itself does not reflect Israel’s population. What kind of a response is it that pupils who do not learn the necessary material should not be included in the sample? The essence of the problem is the fact that no one required them to study a national core curriculum (while the impending coalition agreement releasing the ultraorthodox from Dovrat educational reform indicates a thorough lack of governmental internalization of the problem’s seriousness).

It isn’t a coincidence that in lieu of a proper education in the core fields, they lack the proper tools that could ensure economic survival in a modern and competitive labor market, and as a result, too many mature into lives of unemployment and poverty – from which their deletion from the national statistics is still not viewed as a legitimate option.

It is time to stop skirting the main issue and to quit diverting the debate from the heart of the problem. Until proven otherwise by a truly representative sample that includes all of the children of Israel, it is a fact that the education provided in this country is the absolute worst in the western world and no statistical manipulations can change this. The fact that the percentage of new Israeli-born conscripts into the army knowing how to read at a sufficient level fell from 60% fifteen years ago to just 32% in 2003 should have turned on every red light in the education ministry as to the reliability of the abnormal TIMSS 2003 results from that same year.

It isn’t clear whether the desire to boast about the misleading achievements reflects the degree of non-professionalism or the degree of non-integrity within the ministry of education. Neither case is a cause for celebration – and what is certain is that only our children will pay the price of these two phenomenon. The primary person responsible for the misrepresentation of the results is not Prof. Zuzovsky but the minister of education, Limor Livnat. It is high time that she personally face the public to try and clarify the unexplainable.

There is an important lesson here for the Dovrat committee regarding the need for putting as much distance as possible between the planned new authority for measurement and evaluation, which is a central part of the proposed educational reform, and the interested parties in the education ministry.

“Apparently you are the one who doesn’t know what standard deviation is. There are no intelligence distributions like those you claim.”

The reason Gaussian Distributions or bell curves are so popular and are used so frequently in scientific research is that these theoretical curves come very close to the actual measured data. And almost always when they don’t match the measured data, it’s an error in the measurement, a fraudulent data point (as in the Atlanta cheating scandal), the result of disease or genetic deformity, or some other anomaly.

An example is the World Health Organization, which has spent years studying traffic safety and other issues related to early mortality. And through these statistical analysis, they’ve discovered that Israel’s terrible driving safety record, 240 fatal accidents per 100,000 vehicles, is one of the worst in the world. This makes Israeli roads 123 times more dangerous than roads in San Marino, 35 times more dangerous than Swiss roads, 27 times more dangerous than German roads, and 14 times more dangerous than US roads. They’re even twice as dangerous as roads in Libya, the Congo, and Eriteria, 65% more dangerous than roads in India, and more than 20% more dangerous than roads in Ghana and South Africa. They’re on par with roads in Guinea-Bisau, who Professor Lynn estimates to have an IQ of 63. To their credit, they are one seventh as dangerous as roads in Sao Tome (IQ of 59), and one third as roads in Gambia (IQ of 64). None of the nations with IQ’s greater than 70 come even close to Israel in road deaths. Even roads in the United Arab Emirates, with an IQ of 83, are one fourth as dangerous as those in Israel. Roads in Thailand (IQ of 91) are one fifth as dangerous.

In order to get a perfect linear correlation between IQ and highway safety, IQ’s were adjusted, with the largest downward adjustments being 20 points for Israel (from 94 to 74), 23 points for Egypt (from 83 to 60), and more than 50 points for Niger, Uganda, Sao Tome, and Ethiopia. The largest upper adjustments were 14 points for the Congo, 10 points for South Africa, and 11 points for the United Arab Emirates. No adjustments were made for England and Italy, and 3 point or less adjustments were made for Switzerland, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Canada, USA, Uruguay, and Kenya.

This is proof positive that regular IQ tests are incapable of measuring the collective national intelligence of countries, AND that Israel’s national intelligence is far below that of Thailand and Saudia Arabia, and much closer to their African neighbors to the south. OR that Israel simply CHEATED on all these tests.

Nate asked:

“Oh here’s something I don’t understand. Why would you assume the SD to be 80, if they state it as being 97?”

The standard deviations for mono-cultural nations and races tend to be a half to a third of those of multi-cultural or multi-racial nations. For example, in TIMSS advanced math, the Netherlands has a standard deviation of 46, compared to 106 for the Philippines. Using 80 is a real conservative estimate. The reason for this is that when the bell curves for 2 or 3 (or in the case of the US, 5) different races are averaged together, the standard deviation gets much bigger. It could be that within the White Race in the US, the bell curves for both Catholics and Protestants has a standard deviation similar to the Netherlands, or 46.

If so, then a GRE score for White Protestant men of 649 with a standard deviation of 46 is almost 11 standard deviations higher than a score of 433 for White Catholic men and a standard deviation of 46.

American Black women have a standard deviation of 88 in GRE verbal, yet they are a composite of all 86 Black races of Africa who have not integrated or intermarried with each other over the last 100,000 years, and never will, no matter how much WE do that. Each of these sub-groups could have a standard deviation similar to the Netherlands. The standard deviation of 67 for Hong Kong is made up of two separate racial groups, Mandarin and Cantonese, who each most likely would show a pattern similar to the Netherlands if they were measured separately.

“I already pointed out that Lynn gives standard deviation as 15. So you then change your terms, and say that he is “too generous,” even after you are have listed him as your source. (!) For an IQ of 122 to be six standard deviations higher than a mean of 94, the standard deviation would have to be approximately 4.7. You are thus asserting that hardly any Jews are likely to have IQs above 108 (three standard deviations above 94), & you are also asserting that very few or no Jews have IQs below 80. I guess there are no “slow” people or people with Down’s Syndrome in Israel. Apparently you are the one who doesn’t know what standard deviation is. There are no intelligence distributions like those you claim.”

In all data bases like this there are outliers which must be removed, and it ought to be obvious to you that those with Down’s Syndrome are such outliers.

I’m not quoting Lynn regarding Israel having an IQ of 94: I’m disputing it. Plus, there’s no evidence of a standard deviation difference between Sephardic Jews and Ashkenazi Jews, and the small bit of anecdotal evidence we have is that Sephardic Jews are SMARTER than Ashkenazi Jews. Where he puts Israel’s IQ at 94, the TIMSS study puts it at 86. The PISA math study where Israel scored 442 (17 points lower than Greece and 34 points lower than Azerbaijan), puts it at 85. The IAEP reading score of 439 (a test which was conducted in Hebrew which modern Israelis claim to have invented themselves) is 8 points lower than Turkey (Lynn IQ of 90), puts it at 87. This is an average IQ for Israel of 86. So the distance between “Ashkenazi Jews have an average IQ of 122” and an average IQ for Israel of 86 is even longer than I thought it was before. Even if we use the standard deviation of 15, what this means is that out of all 13 million Jews in the world, only 3 would have an IQ of 122 [read: would score five standard deviations higher than the mean].

On pg. 385, Exhibit A.4, of the 2007 TIMSs math report we have evidence that the test population of Israel was tampered with, so not even these scores might be true and accurate. Israel’s exclusions exceeded 22%, more than 20 times that of most countries, and up to 50 times that of a number of countries. Israel also didn’t meet the 90% sampling requirement that most other countries DID meet. The only possible explanation is that they threw out the lower scoring students. This alone could have inflated Israel’s score by 20 to 40 points.

Ignoring that for a moment, of the 3,294 Israeli students who took the test (and scored 463 with an SD of 92), NONE of them scored as high as the AVERAGE for Hong Kong. Five scored three standard deviations higher than Israel’s average score, and of course none scored more than four standard deviations higher, a score of 647. However, 167 US students, 1,735 Hong Kong students, and 302 Russian students DID score higher than THE top scoring Israeli student.

The most Catholic country in the world is Brazil, who scored 370 in PISA math (SD = 91). The least Catholic country is Finland and they scored 548 (SD = 81). So the most Catholic country in the world scores more than 4 standard deviations lower than the least Catholic country. Just because Catholics moved to this country and entered our education system doesn’t mean that their academic performance or IQ improved relative to their peers. Ditto for Protestants–just because Protestants moved here doesn’t mean that their academic performance or IQ decreased relative to their peers in the original countries.

“Based on online information about Lynn and Vanhanen’s IQ database, their national means have a standard deviation of 15. For you to correctly assert that an IQ of 122 would constitute more than six standard deviations higher than the attributed Israeli IQ of 94, the standard deviation would have to be less than five.”

You don’t seem to know what a standard deviation is, or how to measure it. As an example, consider Botswana’s TIMSS math score of 364 with a standard deviation of 77. What this means is that two thirds of Botswana’s students score 364 +/- 38.5, or between 325.5 and 402.5. One sixth of them score higher than 402.5 and one sixth of them score lower than 325.5, which is the one standard deviation. Two standard deviations out is a score of 441, and only 264 students in Botswana scored higher than this. Three standard deviations out is 480, and only 16 students scored higher than this. Four standard deviations out is 518 and no student scored this high. Five standard deviations out is 557, and obviously no student scored higher than that. Ditto for six standard deviations out, which is a score of 585. However, the AVERAGE for Hong Kong was 607, so in order for a student in Botswana to score 607, they would have to score 6.3 SD higher than their average.

The difference in their IQ is 106 – 72 = 34 IQ points.

If the standard deviation for these IQ scores is the usual 10 points, then the gap in IQ between Hong Kong and Botswana is six standard deviations. However, IF the standard deviation is 15 points (as you claim they say it is), then the gap in IQ scores is only four standard deviations. I’d like to know where they got the idea to use 15 points as the standard deviation for IQ’s, rather than ten points like everyone else uses.

Israel’s TIMSS score of 463 is almost a standard deviation lower than Slovenia, who your own references estimate have an IQ of only 95. It’s also almost a standard deviation lower than Armenia’s who they estimate have an IQ of 93. It’s also .1 SD lower than Malaysia, who they estimate to have an IQ of 92. It’s only a few points higher than Jordan, with an IQ of 87. It’s only 99 points higher than Botswana (IQ = 72), but 144 points lower than Hong Kong (IQ = 106). A linear extrapolation puts Israel’s IQ at 86.

Professor Lynn was extremely generous (or was forced by invidious discrimination against Whites by American publishers) to put Israel’s IQ at 8 points higher than where credible, reliable, verifiable, widely accepted, undisputed studies tell us it ought to be.

“Misinterpreting the data to fit your value system. For instance, from the list of various races and professions you extrapolate the idea that how much these groups earn is:

a) Related to their productivity, and

b) Resulting from lower IQs”

Nate, there is no question here. Smarter people earn more than dumber people. More productive people earn more than less productive people. Whether you like it or not, this is HOW a free enterprise system works. The entire idea of equating IQ to GRE scores is to expain the differences in incomes between races, sexes, professions, countries, and ethnic groups. If you don’t believe that, you need to take it up with the College Board, not this forum, and not me.

Here’s a starting point for you:

http://fathersmanifesto.net/iq.htm

“Here’s the thing. Although Einstein’s IQ may not have been tested by standardized tests, it is generally understood that his IQ was well over 122. Pointing out this anecdotal evidence is essentially creating a straw man, then knocking it down. In reality, Einstein’s IQ was probably much higher than 122, and adds validity to your opponent’s argument, not yours (israelite).”

How can it be “generally understood that his IQ was well over 122”, especially for a guy who never passed algebra and was rejected from every university he ever applied to, and ESPECIALLY if his IQ was never measured? You need to find out who Einstein really was and quit listening to what Jews, whose brethren in Israel score lower than Azerbaijan on CREDIBLE worldwide studies, tell you about him. We KNOW with certainty that NO student, not even a Jew, has ever scored EIGHT STANDARD DEVIATIONS higher than the mean for their group. Yet without testing Einstein, this is exactly what you’re claiming about him:

http://fathersmanifesto.net/einstein.htm

There is no quantitative section of the SAT. You most likely mean the math section, the cites for which are on the following pages:

http://fathersmanifesto.net/satbystate.htm

http://fathersmanifesto.net/satrace2004.htm

http://fathersmanifesto.net/cp.htm

Please don’t claim again that they are not adequately cited. They are ALL very well cited, and what they show is that WHITES in mostly Protestant states like Iowa and North Dakota score a standard deviation higher on all three sections of the SAT than “whites” in mostly Catholic states like Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

What’s your point about indeed.com? At least now you admit that it WAS well cited, right? But exactly what do you object to about using this as a source for average salaries? Do you know why I know that you can easily use this to cross check average salaries reported by the Census Bureau studies? Because this is exactly what I did. Which part do you object to, or claim is “deceptive and disingenuous!”.

Of course there’s nothing at all deceptive or disingenuous about this if you can follow a simple LINK so you can get the point, is there? You evidently couldn’t even follow the link. Or you simply didn’t like the fact that American Blacks earn fifty percent more than American Jews?

Much of the crime data in this country comes from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Report. Of course you probably already know that, right? This crime data comes directly from this report, and ALL Of it is very easy to find, especially now that we know that you CAN search the internet. Right? Ok, maybe not. So let me spoon feed it to you, once again:

http://fathersmanifesto.net/vars.gif

784,018 vehicles and 1,107 traffic fatalities is one fatal accident per 708 vehicles, which makes roads there 70% safer (you are 70% less likely to die on the roads there than in Israel)

A problem that Lynn et. al. would have with estimating Israel’s IQ is that Israel never participated in any of these international studies at the 12th grade level. All we have are numerous 8th grade studies, like IAEP, PISA, and TIMSS, all of which indicate that Israel scores closer to Africa than to Asia. If Israel’s scores drop almost a standard deviation betweeen 8th and 12th grade, as ours do, then Israel’s population has an average IQ one standard deviation LOWER than ALL of Lynn’s estimates. In 2007, the 8th grade TIMSS score for Israel was separated from the Palestinian score, and was 463. Accepting Lynn’s figures that the Ashkenazi and Sephardic population in Israel is evenly divided (which Sephardic Jews I know claim is false) and that Ashkenazi Jews score one standard deviation higher than Sephardic Jews (also questionable), the 100 point standard deviation of TIMSS indicates that Ashkenazi Jews score 513 and Sephardic Jews 413.

Exhibit 2.3, pg. 74. Only 5% of all Israeli’s reached the international benchmark of 625, compared to 32% in Hong Kong, 25% in China, 20% in Massachusetts, 17% in Japan, Korea and England, 13% in Hungary, 11% in Minnesota, the Czech Republic, Slovenia, and Russia, 10% in Hong Kong and the US, and 8% in Armenia, Australia, and Lithuania.