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Male Drivers and Public
Safety
The NHTSA estimates that 71% of the passenger car miles driven each
year in the US are driven by male drivers. But our very own Internet
survey produced the following results:

Males 
Females 
Total 
Miles Driven per Year per Household (excluding William Leavenworth's) 
24,250 
3,500 
27,750 
Percent of Miles 
87% 
13% 
100% 
This makes a LOT of difference
in calculating the relative driving skills of males versus females.
88.6% of all accidents today could be avoided
if all drivers had the demonstrated safety record per 100 Million miles
of California's male drivers. ^{See
Calculations below for Chart}
CHART A  Male:Female Accident
Ratio in California if Males Drive 87% of Miles

California Drivers 
Male 
Female 
Total 
Female:Male Ratio 
Percent of all California Drivers in Accidents 
6.4% 
4.5% 
5.5% 
.7:1 
Total California Drivers 
8,919,394 
8,620,952 
17,540,346 
.97:1 
Drivers/Year in Accidents 
570,841 
387,943 
958,784 
.68:1 
Miles/Year Driven 
229.7 Billion 
34.3 Billion 
264 Billion 
.41:1 
Accidents Per 100 Million Miles 
248.5 
1,131 
363.2 
4.55:1 
IF ALL DRIVERS HAD THE SAFETY
RECORD OF CALIFORNIA'S MALE DRIVERS: 




Miles/Year Driven 
264 Billion 
0 
264 Billion 
0 
Accidents Per 100 Million Miles 
41.5 
0 
41.5 
0 
Drivers/Year in Accidents 
109,576 
0 
109,576 
0 





Reduction in Drivers/Year Involved in Accidents 


849,208 (or 88.6%) 


CALCULATIONS FOR CHART A
Some accidents involve only one driver and some involve 3 or more,
a rough average of 2 drivers per accident, giving us (958,784 accidents
divided by 2 drivers/accident), or 479,392 accidents per year. The
probability of a male having an accident is X, and the probability of a
female having an accident as noted above is 4.55 times that, or 4.55X.
A = male:male accident = X x X = X^{2}
B = female:female accident = 4.55X x 4.55X = 20.7X^{2}
C = female:male accident = 4.55X x X = 4.55X^{2}
A + B + C = 479,392 = 26.25X^{2}
X^{2}= 18,262.6
X = 135.1
A = 18,262.6
B = 378,306
C= 83,095
If the probability per mile of an accident of all of the B drivers
were the same as the A drivers, then the number of B accidents would have
been 18,262.6 rather than 378,306, which is 360,043.4 less. If all
the C drivers had the same probability of having an accident as the A drivers,
then the number of C accidents would have been 18,262.6 rather than
83,0954, which is 64,832.4 less. Instead of 479,392 accidents, if
drivers B & C had had the same skill as drivers A, there would have
been only 54,787.8 accidents, which is 424,604.2, or 88.6%, fewer accidents,
and 849,208 fewer drivers involved in accidents. This is an accident
rate of (109,576/264 Billion) or 41.5 per 100M miles.
It says that females are responsible for 16,259 of the 17,606 highway
fatalities each year. It says that males are 1/46th as likely as
females to have a fatal accident per mile driven. It surprises even
me, the inveterate chauvinist, who expected that the 42% greater hand/eye
coordination of males (as exhibited by Olympic Diving skills) would translate
into better driving skills by males which would not be nearly as vast at
FORTY SIX TIMES.
Is this possible? Can any mathematicians out there check these
numbers over and see where the error is?
FORTY SIX TIMES??
.
If all of the nation's car
drivers had a safety record equivalent to male drivers, then there would
be 16,259 fewer fatal traffic accidents nationwide, every single year,
year after year.^{See Calculations
below for Chart B}
CHART B  Male:Female Fatal
Accident Ratio in the US

Fatal Crash Involvement 
Males 
Females 
Total 
Female:Male Ratio 
Total Fatalities 
28,005 
13,793 
41,798 
.5:1 
1520 Year Old Drivers 
5,801 
2,192 
7,993 
.38:1 
Motorcycles 
2,121 
100 
2,221 
.05:1 
Large Trucks 
3,995 
444 
4,439 
.11:1 
Light Trucks 
6,601 
2,938 
9,539 
.22:1 
Car Fatalities (Passenger Car, Utility Truck, & Van) 
9,487 
8,119 
17,606 
1.1:1 
Car Miles Driven (Billions) 
1,560 
233 
1,793 
.4:1 
Car Fatalities Per 100 Million Miles 
.61 
3.48 
0.98 
5.7:1 
FATALITY RATE IF ALL CAR DRIVERS HAD
THE SAFETY RECORD OF MALE CAR DRIVERS 




Car Miles Driven (Billions) 
1,793 
0 
1,793 
0 
Car Fatalities 
7,033 
0 
7,033 
0 
Car Fatalities Per 100 Million Miles 
0.075 
0 
0.075 
0 
Lives Saved per Year 
 
0 
16,259 (a 92.3% reduction) 
0 

CALCULATIONS FOR CHART
B
The probability of a male car driver of having a fatal accident is
X, and the probability of a female having a fatal accident (as noted above)
is 5.7 times that, or 5.7X.
A = male:male accident = X x X = X^{2}
B = female:female accident = 5.7X x 5.7X = 32.5X^{2}
C = female:male accident = 5.7X x X = 5.7X^{2}
A + B + C = 17,606 total fatalities
A + B + C = 39.19X^{2}
X^{2}= 449.2
X = 21.2
A = 449
B = 14,599
C = 2,560
If the probability of a fatality of all of the B drivers were the same
as the A drivers, then the number of B fatalities would have been 449 rather
than 14,599, which is 14,150 less. If the probability of a fatality of
all of the C drivers were the same as the A drivers, then the number of
C fatalities would have been 449 rather than 2,560, which is 2,111 less.
Instead of 17,606 fatalities, if drivers B & C had had the same skill
as the A drivers, there would have been only 1,347 fatalities, which is
16,259, or 92.3%, fewer fatalities. This is a fatality rate of (1,347/1,793
Billion) or 0.075 fatalities per 100 Million miles.
 
