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Male Drivers and Public Safety

The NHTSA estimates that 71% of the passenger car miles driven each year in the US are driven by male drivers.  But our very own Internet survey produced the following results:

 Males Females Total Miles Driven per Year per Household (excluding William Leavenworth's) 24,250 3,500 27,750 Percent of Miles 87% 13% 100%
This makes a LOT of difference in calculating the relative driving skills of males versus females.

88.6% of all accidents today could be avoided if all drivers had the demonstrated safety record per 100 Million miles of California's male drivers. See Calculations below for Chart

CHART A -- Male:Female Accident Ratio in California if Males Drive 87% of Miles
 California Drivers Male Female Total Female:Male Ratio Percent of all California Drivers in Accidents 6.4% 4.5% 5.5% .7:1 Total California Drivers 8,919,394 8,620,952 17,540,346 .97:1 Drivers/Year in Accidents 570,841 387,943 958,784 .68:1 Miles/Year Driven 229.7 Billion 34.3 Billion 264 Billion .41:1 Accidents Per 100 Million Miles 248.5 1,131 363.2 4.55:1 IF ALL DRIVERS HAD THE SAFETY RECORD OF CALIFORNIA'S MALE DRIVERS: Miles/Year Driven 264 Billion 0 264 Billion 0 Accidents Per 100 Million Miles 41.5 0 41.5 0 Drivers/Year in Accidents 109,576 0 109,576 0 Reduction in Drivers/Year Involved in Accidents 849,208 (or 88.6%)

CALCULATIONS FOR CHART A
Some accidents involve only one driver and some involve 3 or more, a rough average of 2 drivers per accident, giving us (958,784 accidents divided by 2 drivers/accident), or 479,392 accidents per year.  The probability of a male having an accident is X, and the probability of a female having an accident as noted above is 4.55 times that, or 4.55X.
A = male:male accident = X x X = X2
B = female:female accident = 4.55X x 4.55X = 20.7X2
C = female:male accident = 4.55X x X = 4.55X2
A + B + C =  479,392 = 26.25X2
X2= 18,262.6
X = 135.1
A = 18,262.6
B = 378,306
C= 83,095
If the probability per mile of an accident of all of the B drivers were the same as the A drivers, then the number of B accidents would have been 18,262.6  rather than 378,306, which is 360,043.4 less. If all the C drivers had the same probability of having an accident as the A drivers, then the number of C accidents would have been 18,262.6  rather than 83,0954, which is 64,832.4 less.  Instead of 479,392 accidents, if drivers B & C had had the same skill as drivers A, there would have been only 54,787.8 accidents, which is 424,604.2, or 88.6%, fewer accidents, and 849,208 fewer drivers involved in accidents.  This is an accident rate of (109,576/264 Billion) or 41.5 per 100M miles.

It says that females are responsible for 16,259 of the 17,606 highway fatalities each year.  It says that males are 1/46th as likely as females to have a fatal accident per mile driven.  It surprises even me, the inveterate chauvinist, who expected that the 42% greater hand/eye coordination of males (as exhibited by Olympic Diving skills) would translate into better driving skills by males which would not be nearly as vast at FORTY SIX TIMES.

Is this possible?  Can any mathematicians out there check these numbers over and see where the error is?

FORTY SIX TIMES??

.

If all of the nation's car drivers had a safety record equivalent to male drivers, then there would be 16,259 fewer fatal traffic accidents nationwide, every single year, year after year.See Calculations below for Chart B

CHART B -- Male:Female Fatal Accident Ratio in the US

 Fatal Crash Involvement Males Females Total Female:Male Ratio Total Fatalities 28,005 13,793 41,798 .5:1 15-20 Year Old Drivers 5,801 2,192 7,993 .38:1 Motorcycles 2,121 100 2,221 .05:1 Large Trucks 3,995 444 4,439 .11:1 Light Trucks 6,601 2,938 9,539 .22:1 Car Fatalities (Passenger Car, Utility Truck, & Van) 9,487 8,119 17,606 1.1:1 Car Miles Driven (Billions) 1,560 233 1,793 .4:1 Car Fatalities Per 100 Million Miles .61 3.48 0.98 5.7:1 FATALITY  RATE IF ALL CAR DRIVERS HAD THE SAFETY RECORD OF MALE CAR DRIVERS Car Miles Driven (Billions) 1,793 0 1,793 0 Car Fatalities 7,033 0 7,033 0 Car Fatalities Per 100 Million Miles 0.075 0 0.075 0 Lives Saved per Year - 0 16,259 (a 92.3% reduction) 0

CALCULATIONS FOR CHART B
The probability of a male car driver of having a fatal accident is X, and the probability of a female having a fatal accident (as noted above) is 5.7 times that, or 5.7X.
A = male:male accident = X x X = X2
B = female:female accident = 5.7X x 5.7X = 32.5X2
C = female:male accident = 5.7X x X = 5.7X2
A + B + C =  17,606 total fatalities
A + B + C = 39.19X2
X2= 449.2
X = 21.2
A = 449
B = 14,599
C = 2,560
If the probability of a fatality of all of the B drivers were the same as the A drivers, then the number of B fatalities would have been 449 rather than 14,599, which is 14,150 less. If the probability of a fatality of all of the C drivers were the same as the A drivers, then the number of C fatalities would have been 449 rather than 2,560, which is 2,111 less.  Instead of 17,606 fatalities, if drivers B & C had had the same skill as the A drivers, there would have been only 1,347 fatalities, which is 16,259, or 92.3%, fewer fatalities. This is a fatality rate of (1,347/1,793 Billion) or 0.075 fatalities per 100 Million miles.

 Modified Saturday, March 11, 2017 Copyright @ 2007 by Fathers' Manifesto & Christian Party