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Women Drivers: Hidden Health Risk To MenWomen drive only 30% of miles driven but are in 37% of the fatal accidentsUniversity of Michigan: Women Drivers 50% More Likely than Men Drivers to CrashScientific Evidence that Men and Women are Designed DifferentlyHow drunk does a man have to be to drive as dangerously as a sober woman? Answer: seven drinks Man Driver Must Drink 7 Drinks to Drive as Dangerously as a Sober Woman DriverUpdate on the TRUTH:"The analysis by Connolly, Kimball, and Moulton (1989) mentioned above suggests that female drivers have both a higher overall crash risk and a higher alcohol-related fatal-crash risk. Combined data from FARS and the 1986 National Roadside Breathtesting Survey suggest that the relative fatal-crash risk of a female driver with a BAC of 0.10% or more could be of the order of 50% higher than it is for a male driver at the same BAC. Of course, estimates based on these two unmatched data sets are, as indicated above, are only very rough, but they are consistent with prior case-control studies (see Jones and Joscelyn 1978).
Clues that NHTSA is too much of an advocacy organization to trust their conclusions
"I've been hit by a woman putting on makeup and another texting, both times they LIED to the police officer and I was blamed, so now I pay really high insurance premiums. Both times the officer was a female..." And that's the MAIN flaw with these statistics--they greatly under-represent the role women drivers play in accidents, particularly those with men. http://ns.umich.edu/htdocs/releases/story.php?id=8432 Women drivers involved more than men in certain kinds of crashes
ANN ARBOR, Mich.�While men and women often disagree about which gender has better driving skills, a new study by the University of Michigan may shed some light on the debate. Using data from a nationally representative sample of police-reported crashes from 1988 to 2007, Michael Sivak and Brandon Schoettle of the U-M Transportation Research Institute studied the gender effects in six different crash scenarios (based on crash angles, direction of approach and speed). These two-vehicle crash scenarios included various maneuvers in which one vehicle turned in front of the other, one vehicle side-swiped the other or both vehicles collided head-on. "The likelihood that a given driver will be involved in a two-vehicle crash depends on a variety of driver, vehicular and environmental factors," said Sivak, research professor at UMTRI. "There are three dominant driver-related factors, including the probability of being at the wrong place at the wrong time, one's own driving skills and the driving skills of the other driver involved." Sivak and Schoettle compared the actual frequencies of different combinations of involved male and female drivers in the six crash scenarios with the expected frequencies if there were no gender differences. The expected frequencies were based on annual distance driven for personal travel by male and female drivers. Because men drive about 60 percent of those annual miles and women drive 40 percent, men are expected to be involved in a higher percentage of crashes for each scenario, road conditions and driving skills being equal. But the researchers found that crashes involving two female drivers were overrepresented in five of the six crash scenarios, including two by at least 50 percent more and two others by more than 25 percent greater than what was expected. On the other hand, crashes involving two male drivers were underrepresented in four of the six scenarios, including two by more than 20 percent and another by just less than 20 percent. In crash scenarios involving both male and female drivers, actual frequencies tended to be close to the expected frequencies. "The results indicate that in certain crash scenarios, male-to-male crashes tend to be underrepresented and female-to-female crashes tend to be overrepresented," Sivak said. "This pattern of results could be due to either differential gender exposure to the different scenarios, differential gender capabilities to handle specific scenarios or differential expectations of actions by other drivers based on their gender. "In all, success in handling on-road conflicts depends not only on psychomotor ability but also on the outcome of complex social interactions between traffic participants. In turn, these interactions are influenced by expectations based on prior experience�and a set of common stereotypical expectations that drivers have concerning the behavior of male and female drivers."
�Final Report, Alcohol Highway Safety: Problem Update�
"The analysis by Connolly, Kimball, and Moulton (1989) mentioned above suggests that female drivers have both a higher overall crash risk and a higher alcohol-related fatal-crash risk. Combined data from FARS and the 1986 National Roadside Breathtesting Survey suggest that the relative fatal-crash risk of a female driver with a BAC of 0.10% or more could be of the order of 50% higher than it is for a male driver at the same BAC. Of course, estimates based on these two unmatched data sets are, as indicated above, are only very rough, but they are consistent with prior case-control studies (see Jones and Joscelyn 1978). "Donovan et al. (1990) examined the driver records of a 1% sample of all licensed drivers in the State of Washington in 1979. They found that, overall, 2.1% of these 39,011 drivers were arrested for DWI during a three-year follow-up period. However, these rates were quite different for male and female drivers, the rate for males being 3.4% compared to only 0.7% for females.
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NHTSA Data | Women | Men | Total | Ratio | Percent Women |
Billion Miles Driven | 455.5 | 1,056.1 | 1,511.6 | 0.43 | 30.1% |
Drivers in Fatal Accidents | 19,750 | 33,487 | 53,237 | 0.59 | 37.1% |
Accidents per billion miles | 43.36 | 31.71 | 35.22 | 1.37 |
The above is the conclusion you might have reached had you queried the FARS data base on October 30, 2000 which showed that women drivers were involved in only 37% of fatal accidents. But if you take a close look by vehicle type, you will see that women were 15,181 or 43% of the 35,510 drivers of passenger cars:
In other words, because the 1.5 trillion vehicle miles driven is for passenger cars only, we must compare that only to accidents involving passenger cars. The following more accurate table shows that women drivers are 73% more likely to have a fatal accident than men drivers, rather than only 37%.
Passenger Vehicles Only | Women | Men | Total | Ratio | Percent Women |
Billion Miles Driven | 456 | 1,056 | 1,512 | 0.43 | 30.1% |
Drivers in Fatal Accidents | 15,181 | 20,329 | 35,510 | 0.75 | 42.8% |
Accidents per billion miles | 33.33 | 19.25 | 23.49 | 1.73 |
Ocbober 30, 2000
1999 Annual Report File
Accident Counts by Vehicle Body and Sex in 1999 | ||
Search Conditions | Search Results | 1999 Statistics |
---|---|---|
Year=1999 | 37,043 | 37,043 |
Sex | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Blank | Male | Female | Unknown | Total |
1 | 33487 | 19750 | 1057 | 37,043 |
However, there are a number of reasons to be suspicious of NHTSA's claim that women drive 30% of VMT (vehicle miles of travel):
It's hard to imagine that women who drive trucks are six times more likely to have a fatal accident than men who drive trucks, but that women who drive passenger cars are only 70% more likely than men who drive passenger cars. Or that women who drive passenger cars are less likely than men who drive trucks to have a fatal accident. It would be expected that women who drive passenger cars would have an accident rate higher than men which is equivalent to the amount by which women truckers have more accidents than men truckers, or 6X.
ULTRA-CONSERVATIVE CALCULATION
Even accepting the NHTSA data at face value, the higher probability that women will have an automobile accident contributes to an increase in the accident rate for men. The calculations for the most conservative figure of 35% are shown below to enable a comparison to be made to the results of the 56% figure. To determine exactly how much higher the accident rate for men is because of women drivers it is necessary to calculate the rate per one million miles that both men and women are expected to have an accident. If we let Nm be the number of accidents per million miles that a man is expected have a single driver auto accident, and Nf that a woman will, then we have two equations and two variables. The total number of accidents per million miles that a man is expected to have an accident, Rm, is the sum of his likelihood per million miles of having a single driver accident Nm, the square of this probability to represent a two driver accident involving another man Nm2, and Nm times Nf to represent a two driver accident involving a woman. For simplicity, accidents involving more than two drivers are omitted, but they are rare enough that the ratios below won't change significantly and it is unlikely that the probability of either sex to have a multiple car crash is much different than the probability of a two driver crash:
(Nm + .65Nm2 +.35 NmNf) x 965 billion miles driven = 2,418,799 accidents
Rm = Nm + .65Nm2 + .35NmNf = 2.5
The equation for women is similar:
(Nf + .35Nf2 + .65NmNf) x 513 billion miles driven = 1,701,043 accidents
Rf = Nf + Nf2 + NmNf = 3.3
Nf = (2.5 - Nm - .65Nm2)/.35Nm
(2.5 - Nm - .65Nm2)/.35Nm + 2.857(6.25 -5Nm - 2.25Nm2 + 1.3Nm3 + .4225Nm4 )/Nm2 + 1.857(2.5 -Nm - .65Nm2) = 3.3
1.155Nm2 = 2.5Nm - Nm2 - .65Nm3 + 6.25 - 5Nm - 2.25Nm2 + 1.3Nm3 + .4225Nm4 + 1.6429Nm2 - .65Nm3 - .4225Nm4
2.7621Nm2 + 2.5Nm = 6.25
Nm = 1.11829 = The number of single driver accidents per million miles that that a man is expected to have.
Nf = 1.4533 = The number of single driver accidents per million miles that that a woman is expected to have.
Nf = 1.3 x Nm
If all drivers were men who drove the 1,478 billion miles which are currently driven by both men and women, the total accident rate would be 2.37 accidents per million miles, for a total of 3,497,018 drivers in accidents:
(Nm + Nm2) x 1,478,000 million miles = 3,501,179 drivers in accidents.
If all drivers were women who drove the 1,478 billion miles which are currently driven by both men and women, the total accident rate would be 3.67 accidents per million miles, for a total of 5,417,947 drivers in accidents:
(Nf + Nf2) x 1,478,000 million miles = 5,269,840 drivers in accidents.
With the assumption that women drive 35% of all miles, if only men drove today, the number of drivers in accidents would decrease from 4,119,842 to 3,501,179 per year, a reduction of 16.9%. If only women drove, the number of drivers in accidents would increase from 3,497,018 to 5,269,840 per year, a 28.7% increase and there would be 50% more accidents than if only men drove. Women who have accidents with men increase men's overall accident rate per million miles from 2.37 to 2.51, a 5.5% increase.
Men | Women | Total | |
Miles Driven (billions) | 965.134 | 513 | 1,478 |
Drivers in crashes per year | 2,418,799 | 1,701,043 | 4,119,842 |
Current crash rate per million miles | 2.51 | 3.32 | 1.32 |
Single driver crash rate per million miles | 1.1164 | 1.485 | 1.33 |
Crash rate with one same sex driver | 0.813865871 | 0.765213075 | |
Crash rate with one opposite sex driver | 0.575275338 | 1.082578662 | |
Total crash rate with both sexes driving | 2.505541209 | 3.332791737 | 1.33 |
Current total drivers in crashes | 2,418,183 | 1,709,276 | 0.71 |
Crash rate with only one sex driving | 2.36274896 | 3.690225 | |
Drivers in crashes with only one sex driving all miles | 3,492,143 | 5,454,153 | 1.56 |
At current traffic fatality rates, the average man who drives 15,000 miles per year for fifty years has a 1.91% probability of dying in a traffic crash. But a non-drinking woman driving the same distance has a 5.63% probability of dying in a traffic crash, almost three times as high. Because men are safer drivers per mile driven, if only men drove all of the miles currently driven by both men and women, his probability would decrease to 1.59%, which would save a quarter of a million lives over the next three decades. Contrary to popular belief, the NHTSA data shows that the drinking man driver has a better traffic safety record than the non-drinking man driver, with a probability over 50 years of only 0.82%. If only drinking men drove all the miles currently driven by both men and women, almost a million lives would be saved over the next 3 decades, compared to only 157,000 lives which would be expected to be saved by the use of seat belts over that time.
Conversely, if only women drove those same miles in that same timeframe, there would be almost half a million additional traffic fatalities.
Probability of death over 50 years | Men's Annual Mortality Rate | Men's Rate Over 50 Years | Women's Annual Mortality Rate | Women's Rate Over 50 Years |
Heart disease | 0.003601 | 18.00% | 0.003733 | 18.7% |
If alcohol consumption were increased enough to reduce heart disease deaths 10% | 0.00324 | 16.20% | 0.00336 | 16.8% |
Cancer | 0.00282 | 14.09% | 0.00257 | 12.9% |
Firearms | 0.00020 | 1.00% | 0.00005 | 0.25% |
Non-automobile accidents | 0.00032 | 1.62% | 0.00019 | 0.94% |
AIDS | 0.00025 | 1.26% | 0.00005 | 0.25% |
| 0.60665 | 3033.24% | 1.09766 | 5488.32% |
Pneumonia and flu | 0.00038 | 1.90% | 0.00046 | 2.29% |
Suicide | 0.00025 | 1.25% | 0.00005 | 0.25% |
Diabetes | 0.00028 | 1.38% | 0.00034 | 1.71% |
Cirrhosis | 0.00016 | 0.82% | 0.00002 | 0.12% |
Wife murdered by husband | 0.0000037 | 0.02% | ||
Woman murdered by other than husband | 0.00003 | 0.17% | ||
Child murdered by mother | 0.0000107 | 0.0533% | 0.00000710 | 0.04% |
Child murdered by father | 0.0000002 | 0.0011% | 0.00000014 | 0.0007% |
Auto accidents at 15,000 miles per year | ||||
Fatality rate per mile | 0.0000000255 | 0.0000000338 | ||
Fatality rate per billion miles | 25.53 | 33.78615323 | ||
Non-drinking driver | 0.000710 | 3.55% | 0.001126 | 5.63% |
Current average rate | 0.000383 | 1.91% | 0.000507 | 2.53% |
| 0.000318 | 1.59% | ||
| 0.000368 | 1.84% | 0.000487 | 2.43% |
| 0.000423 | 2.11% | 0.000559 | 2.80% |
| 0.000493 | 2.46% | ||
Average crash fatality rate of drinking man | 0.000165 | 0.82% | ||
| 0.000137 | 0.68% |
Percent Change | Men | Total | Men, 30 years | Total, 30 yrs | Difference, men, 30 years | Difference, total, 30 yrs | |
Current annual traffic fatalities | 24,639 | 41,967 | 887,012 | 1,510,812 | |||
Fatalities if only men drove | 16.93% | 20,467 | 34,860 | 736,808 | 1,254,975 | -150,205 | -255,837 |
If only drinking men drove | 64.27% | 8,803 | 14,993 | 316,894 | 539,752 | -570,119 | -971,060 |
If only women drove | -28.72% | 31,715 | 54,020 | 1,141,755 | 1,944,705 | 254,743 | 433,893 |
If only men drove without seat belts | -10.40% | 27,202 | 46,332 | 979,262 | 1,667,936 | 92,249 | 157,124 |
If eliminating alcohol reduced accidents 4% | 4.00% | 23,654 | 40,288 | 851,532 | 1,450,380 | -35,480 | -60,432 |
If only non-drinking women drove | 194.09% | 72,461 | 123,421 | 2,608,612 | 4,443,144 | 1,721,600 | 2,932,332 |
Difference between drinking men and non-drinking women | 2,291,719 | 3,903,391 |
Factor | Ratio |
child murder:wife murder | 4.9 |
boys murdered mother:father | 49.4 |
girls murdered mother:father | 49.4 |
non-drinking woman:drinking man | 6.8 |
The results of the National Personal Transportation Survey, which are in a pdf file located at http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/1983/vol1pt1.pdf show that women drive only 30% of all miles, and men drive 70%, which changes the ratios considerably. This would mean that women are 56% more likely per mile than men to have an accident rather than only 33%. This means that if only men drove that there would be 2.22 accidents per million miles, which is 21.8% lower than the current rate of 2.84 crashes per million miles, which would save 9,159 lives per year. This is also 8.3% lower than men's current crash rate of 2.42, which means that 8.3% or 200,760 of the accidents which men currently have are caused by women drivers. If only women drove, the accident rate would be 4.46 accidents per million miles, which is 57% higher than the current total crash rate and 18% higher than women's current crash rate of 3.78, which would increase the number of traffic fatalities by 23,893 per year. Over the next thirty years, based on the current population growth projection of 1.1% per year, there would be 336,000 fewer traffic fatalities if only men drove. Conversely, there would be 877,000 more traffic fatalities if only women drove.
This data shows that if only men drove, the cost to repair automobile crashes would be between $30 billion to $44 billion less, and 9,159 of the 41,967 lives currently lost each year to auto accidents would be saved. Over the next three decades, this is a savings of as much as $1.6 trillion and 336,000 lives.
Passenger Vehicles | Men | Women | Percent | Total |
Miles Driven (billions) | 1000 | 450 | 1,450 | |
Drivers in crashes per year | 2,418,799 | 1,701,043 | 4,119,842 | |
Current crash rate per million miles | 2.42 | 3.78 | 56.3% | 2.84 |
Single driver crash rate per million miles | 1.072 | 1.67 | 55.8% | |
Crash rate with one same sex driver | 0.79 | 0.87 | ||
Crash rate with one opposite sex driver | 0.56 | 1.23 | ||
Total crash rate with both sexes driving | 2.42 | 3.77 | 55.8% | |
Current total drivers in crashes | 2,420,132 | 1,696,576 | -29.9% | |
Single driver crashes, one sex driving | 1,554,400 | 2,421,500 | 55.8% | |
Two driver crashes, one sex driving | 1,666,317 | 4,043,905 | 142.7% | |
Crash rate with only one sex driving | 2.22 | 4.46 | 100.7% | |
Drivers in crashes with only one sex driving all miles | 3,220,717 | 6,465,405 | 2.01 | 3,244,688 |
Number of drivers in single driver accidents | 1,071,409 | 753,479 | 44.3% | 44.4% |
Number of drivers in same sex accidents | 792,104 | 390,510 | 32.7% | 23.0% |
Number of drivers in opposite sex accidents | 555,286 | 557,055 | 22.9% | 32.8% |
Change if only one sex drove | -899,125 | 2,345,563 | 3,244,688 | |
change in percent | -21.8% | 56.9% | ||
Total accidents | 1,745,104 | 1,227,261 | 2,972,365 | |
Current fatalities, both sexes driving | 41,967 | |||
Fatalities with one sex driving | 32,808 | 65,860 | ||
Difference per year in number of fatalities | -9,159 | 23,893 | ||
Difference in number of fatalities over 30 years | -336,167 | +876,955 |
If you were to believe all of the claims made by the NHTSA (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration) Report DOT HS 808 770, you would believe that all kinds of new laws (DUI Laws, Helmet Laws, Safety Laws, Minimum Age Drinking Laws, Open Container Laws, Repeat Intoxicated Driver Laws, Bicycle Helmet Laws, Air Bag Laws, Child Passenger Laws, etc) saved 21,880 lives in one year. However, the actual decrease in the number of fatalities due to the decrease in the motor vehicle fatality rate was only 4,423, which is 17,457 fewer than all the claims. It is suspicious that NHTSA claims that the percent of alcohol-related fatalities decreased from 51% in 1987 to 30.3% in 1997, when such a decrease is almost equal to the actual total decrease in traffic fatalities. It is also contradictory to police reports in the Statistical Abstract of the United States which report that only 4% of all accidents are "alcohol involved".
References:
Per the "Early Results Report" of the Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey http://www-cta.ornl.gov/npts/1995/Doc/index.shtml men drive 65.3% or 965 billion and women drive 513 billion of those miles.
Per Traffic Safety Facts' "Drivers Involvement in Crashes" from the FARS data base http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/www/cfm/library/rpt_info.cfm?index=People:Drivers&recordid=0 male drivers were involved in 2,418,799 fatal and injury crashes and female drivers were involved in 1,701,043.
Per mile driven, women have one third more fatal or injury crashes than men, 3.3 vs. 2.5 per one million miles driven, and 17% more property damage only accidents, 5.86 vs. 5.02.
Per the National Safety Council http://www.nsc.org/lrs/statinfo/af78.htm the economic cost of motor vehicle crashes in 1997 was $200 billion.
Per the 1994 Statistical Abstract of the United States, Table 1023, police departments report that 5% of all traffic crashes are "alcohol-involved" Table No. 1041
Women drive 30% of all miles per the National Personal Transportation Survey http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/1983/vol1pt1.pdf
Drinking 1.9 ounces of alcohol per day reduces the probability of a man having an accident by 80%.
The reduction of alcohol consumption caused by MADD caused 30,000 more men to die of heart disease each year.
Contrary to MADD's claims, police reports reveal that only five percent of crashes are "alcohol related" (Table No. 1041)
The fatal crash involvement for men decreased 20 percent while that for women increased 28 percent.
Modified Sunday, December 26, 2021
Copyright @ 2007 by Fathers' Manifesto & Christian Party